Persistent low-pressure trough along southern China and the northern South China Sea is sustaining cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms into early August, moderating nighttime radiative cooling and keeping daily minimum temperatures near the seasonal average of 26–27°C. Latest multi-model consensus and Hong Kong Observatory guidance point to 25–26°C as the most likely range for August 3, with 24°C possible if heavier overnight rain enhances evaporative cooling. High humidity, light winds, and limited clear-sky periods reduce the chance of sharper drops, while any break in cloud cover could allow 27°C or higher. Traders are weighting near-term forecast revisions from the next HKO and global model runs that will refine cloud and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.