**Trader consensus has converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Tokyo’s highest temperature on June 15, 2026, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecast and ensemble model guidance.** A modest subtropical ridge combined with lingering Baiu-season cloud cover is limiting solar heating, producing daytime maxima consistent with 21–22°C at the Otemachi observation site—the official resolution source. This aligns with early-June climatology when frontal activity often caps temperatures several degrees below the monthly normal of ~26°C. The market-implied probability above 99% for 22°C incorporates real capital at risk and accounts for minor remaining uncertainty in afternoon mixing or localized clearing. An unexpected rapid dissipation of cloud cover or a sharper ridge build could allow readings to reach 23–24°C, though current model consensus and ongoing JMA updates make such shifts unlikely before final observations are recorded.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$124,418 Обс.
$124,418 Обс.
Jun 15, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$124,418 Обс.
$124,418 Обс.
Jun 15, 2026
17°C or below
$3,194 Обс.
No
18°C
$4,979 Обс.
No
19°C
$6,813 Обс.
No
20°C
$29,308 Обс.
No
21°C
$17,634 Обс.
No
22°C
$15,577 Обс.
Yes
23°C
$17,130 Обс.
No
24°C
$13,730 Обс.
No
25°C
$4,617 Обс.
No
26°C
$4,881 Обс.
No
27°C or higher
$6,555 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Tokyo’s highest temperature on June 15, 2026, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecast and ensemble model guidance.** A modest subtropical ridge combined with lingering Baiu-season cloud cover is limiting solar heating, producing daytime maxima consistent with 21–22°C at the Otemachi observation site—the official resolution source. This aligns with early-June climatology when frontal activity often caps temperatures several degrees below the monthly normal of ~26°C. The market-implied probability above 99% for 22°C incorporates real capital at risk and accounts for minor remaining uncertainty in afternoon mixing or localized clearing. An unexpected rapid dissipation of cloud cover or a sharper ridge build could allow readings to reach 23–24°C, though current model consensus and ongoing JMA updates make such shifts unlikely before final observations are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$124,418Дата завершення
Jun 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Tokyo’s highest temperature on June 15, 2026, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecast and ensemble model guidance.** A modest subtropical ridge combined with lingering Baiu-season cloud cover is limiting solar heating, producing daytime maxima consistent with 21–22°C at the Otemachi observation site—the official resolution source. This aligns with early-June climatology when frontal activity often caps temperatures several degrees below the monthly normal of ~26°C. The market-implied probability above 99% for 22°C incorporates real capital at risk and accounts for minor remaining uncertainty in afternoon mixing or localized clearing. An unexpected rapid dissipation of cloud cover or a sharper ridge build could allow readings to reach 23–24°C, though current model consensus and ongoing JMA updates make such shifts unlikely before final observations are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$124,418Дата завершення
Jun 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
**Trader consensus has converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Tokyo’s highest temperature on June 15, 2026, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecast and ensemble model guidance.** A modest subtropical ridge combined with lingering Baiu-season cloud cover is limiting solar heating, producing daytime maxima consistent with 21–22°C at the Otemachi observation site—the official resolution source. This aligns with early-June climatology when frontal activity often caps temperatures several degrees below the monthly normal of ~26°C. The market-implied probability above 99% for 22°C incorporates real capital at risk and accounts for minor remaining uncertainty in afternoon mixing or localized clearing. An unexpected rapid dissipation of cloud cover or a sharper ridge build could allow readings to reach 23–24°C, though current model consensus and ongoing JMA updates make such shifts unlikely before final observations are recorded.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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