Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 13?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$71,850 Обс.
$71,850 Обс.
May 13, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$71,850 Обс.
$71,850 Обс.
May 13, 2026
16°C or below
$1,176 Обс.
No
17°C
$1,548 Обс.
No
18°C
$1,166 Обс.
No
19°C
$1,016 Обс.
No
20°C
$1,325 Обс.
No
21°C
$2,275 Обс.
No
22°C
$7,195 Обс.
No
23°C
$7,947 Обс.
No
24°C
$8,200 Обс.
No
25°C
$23,913 Обс.
No
26°C or higher
$16,089 Обс.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Обсяг
$71,850Дата завершення
May 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$71,850Дата завершення
May 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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