The closely matched probabilities for 33°C and 34°C as Tokyo’s July 20 high reflect short-range forecast uncertainty in the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble guidance, with typical midsummer Pacific high pressure supporting mid-30s readings but variable sea-breeze timing and cloud cover able to trim peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity further modulate daily maxima, while recent model runs show modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July averages near 31–32°C provide context, yet the market assigns meaningful weight to 32°C and 35°C outcomes because small shifts in steering flow or timing of any frontal passage could alter the peak by one degree either way before the 20th.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 20?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 20?
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$63,993 Обс.
$63,993 Обс.
Jul 20, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$63,993 Обс.
$63,993 Обс.
Jul 20, 2026
27°C or below
$440 Обс.
No
28°C
$4,032 Обс.
No
29°C
$865 Обс.
No
30°C
$883 Обс.
No
31°C
$2,934 Обс.
No
32°C
$7,373 Обс.
No
33°C
$10,140 Обс.
No
34°C
$6,011 Обс.
No
35°C
$11,408 Обс.
Yes
36°C
$10,713 Обс.
No
37°C or higher
$9,194 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities for 33°C and 34°C as Tokyo’s July 20 high reflect short-range forecast uncertainty in the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble guidance, with typical midsummer Pacific high pressure supporting mid-30s readings but variable sea-breeze timing and cloud cover able to trim peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity further modulate daily maxima, while recent model runs show modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July averages near 31–32°C provide context, yet the market assigns meaningful weight to 32°C and 35°C outcomes because small shifts in steering flow or timing of any frontal passage could alter the peak by one degree either way before the 20th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$63,993Дата завершення
Jul 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities for 33°C and 34°C as Tokyo’s July 20 high reflect short-range forecast uncertainty in the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble guidance, with typical midsummer Pacific high pressure supporting mid-30s readings but variable sea-breeze timing and cloud cover able to trim peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity further modulate daily maxima, while recent model runs show modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July averages near 31–32°C provide context, yet the market assigns meaningful weight to 32°C and 35°C outcomes because small shifts in steering flow or timing of any frontal passage could alter the peak by one degree either way before the 20th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$63,993Дата завершення
Jul 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
The closely matched probabilities for 33°C and 34°C as Tokyo’s July 20 high reflect short-range forecast uncertainty in the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble guidance, with typical midsummer Pacific high pressure supporting mid-30s readings but variable sea-breeze timing and cloud cover able to trim peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity further modulate daily maxima, while recent model runs show modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July averages near 31–32°C provide context, yet the market assigns meaningful weight to 32°C and 35°C outcomes because small shifts in steering flow or timing of any frontal passage could alter the peak by one degree either way before the 20th.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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