Recent short-range model runs from agencies including the ECMWF and GFS indicate a frontal passage bringing cooler maritime air and possible showers to central Poland on August 17, shifting Warsaw’s expected daily maximum from the mid-20s °C range seen earlier in the week to around 21–23 °C. This consensus underpins the market’s clustering around 22 °C (30 % implied probability). Key variables include the exact timing and strength of the front, which could allow brief clearing and a 1–2 °C warmer outcome, versus sustained cloud cover or heavier rain that would cap temperatures near or below 21 °C. Ensemble spread remains notable two days out because small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture can alter peak values by several degrees; updated 00Z and 12Z runs will tighten or widen the distribution ahead of resolution.