Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS, alongside IMGW guidance, indicate Warsaw will experience mostly sunny skies and light westerly flow on August 16, supporting daytime maxima near 29–30°C through strong solar insolation and limited cloud cover. Recent runs show slight warming from a building high-pressure ridge, with ensemble spreads highlighting uncertainty around afternoon convective development that could cap peaks near 28°C or allow brief pushes to 31°C. Historical August maxima average 23–25°C, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly driven by suppressed mixing and warm advection. Traders weigh these variables against the next model cycle updates expected within 24 hours, which often resolve threshold outcomes in similar short-range temperature markets.