Recent forecasts from models including those referenced by the China Meteorological Administration indicate a daily maximum around 34–36°C for Chongqing on August 14, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, limited cloud cover, and typical mid-August humidity patterns that moderate extreme peaks. This consensus positions 34°C as the leading market outcome at 39.5% implied probability, followed closely by 35°C, reflecting historical August averages near 35°C with occasional excursions above 37°C under stronger ridging. Short-range model runs show minimal divergence through the period, though afternoon convection could slightly suppress the peak. Updated guidance ahead of the date will likely refine these probabilities as steering patterns and local urban heat effects become clearer.