Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including AccuWeather and Weather25 project Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14, 2026, to reach 38–39 °C under continued hot, dry summer conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds. These values sit well above the long-term August mean daily high of roughly 32 °C, reflecting persistent warm-air advection from North Africa and limited cooling overnight. Model consensus currently clusters in this narrow band, producing the market’s heaviest weighting on 38 °C (30.5 %) and 39 °C (47.5 %), while the modest probability attached to 40 °C (10.5 %) accounts for possible small upward revisions in the final model runs or localized urban heat-island effects before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
39°C 48%
38°C 30%
40°C 12%
37°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
6%
38°C
30%
39°C
48%
40°C
12%
41°C
5%
42°C
3%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 48%
38°C 30%
40°C 12%
37°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$52 Обс.
1%
36°C
$25 Обс.
2%
37°C
$86 Обс.
6%
38°C
$154 Обс.
30%
39°C
$176 Обс.
48%
40°C
$107 Обс.
12%
41°C
$23 Обс.
5%
42°C
$5 Обс.
3%
43°C
$12 Обс.
<1%
44°C
$16 Обс.
<1%
45°C or higher
$31 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including AccuWeather and Weather25 project Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14, 2026, to reach 38–39 °C under continued hot, dry summer conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds. These values sit well above the long-term August mean daily high of roughly 32 °C, reflecting persistent warm-air advection from North Africa and limited cooling overnight. Model consensus currently clusters in this narrow band, producing the market’s heaviest weighting on 38 °C (30.5 %) and 39 °C (47.5 %), while the modest probability attached to 40 °C (10.5 %) accounts for possible small upward revisions in the final model runs or localized urban heat-island effects before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$687Дата завершення
Aug 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including AccuWeather and Weather25 project Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14, 2026, to reach 38–39 °C under continued hot, dry summer conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds. These values sit well above the long-term August mean daily high of roughly 32 °C, reflecting persistent warm-air advection from North Africa and limited cooling overnight. Model consensus currently clusters in this narrow band, producing the market’s heaviest weighting on 38 °C (30.5 %) and 39 °C (47.5 %), while the modest probability attached to 40 °C (10.5 %) accounts for possible small upward revisions in the final model runs or localized urban heat-island effects before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$687Дата завершення
Aug 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including AccuWeather and Weather25 project Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14, 2026, to reach 38–39 °C under continued hot, dry summer conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds. These values sit well above the long-term August mean daily high of roughly 32 °C, reflecting persistent warm-air advection from North Africa and limited cooling overnight. Model consensus currently clusters in this narrow band, producing the market’s heaviest weighting on 38 °C (30.5 %) and 39 °C (47.5 %), while the modest probability attached to 40 °C (10.5 %) accounts for possible small upward revisions in the final model runs or localized urban heat-island effects before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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