Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 2?
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$79,654 Обс.
$79,654 Обс.
Jul 2, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$79,654 Обс.
$79,654 Обс.
Jul 2, 2026
19°C or below
$3,269 Обс.
No
20°C
$2,284 Обс.
No
21°C
$1,805 Обс.
No
22°C
$2,540 Обс.
No
23°C
$10,341 Обс.
No
24°C
$4,454 Обс.
No
25°C
$8,379 Обс.
No
26°C
$14,739 Обс.
No
27°C
$15,549 Обс.
Yes
28°C
$9,374 Обс.
No
29°C or higher
$6,921 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$79,654Дата завершення
Jul 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$79,654Дата завершення
Jul 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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