Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) confirm Warsaw's highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 27°C at key monitoring stations, including Chopin Airport, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns with the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs from May 3, which forecasted peak highs of 26–28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge bringing warm continental air masses, consistent with early May climatological norms where daily maxima average 19°C but can spike 8°C above amid blocking patterns. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control—such as sensor recalibrations or overlooked remote station peaks—but IMGW preliminary bulletins rarely shift after 24 hours, with final reports due May 6.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$87,819 Обс.
$87,819 Обс.
May 4, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$87,819 Обс.
$87,819 Обс.
May 4, 2026
19°C or below
$2,938 Обс.
No
20°C
$877 Обс.
No
21°C
$1,710 Обс.
No
22°C
$2,890 Обс.
No
23°C
$3,453 Обс.
No
24°C
$4,894 Обс.
No
25°C
$15,133 Обс.
No
26°C
$15,921 Обс.
No
27°C
$14,278 Обс.
Yes
28°C
$14,958 Обс.
No
29°C or higher
$10,767 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) confirm Warsaw's highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 27°C at key monitoring stations, including Chopin Airport, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns with the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs from May 3, which forecasted peak highs of 26–28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge bringing warm continental air masses, consistent with early May climatological norms where daily maxima average 19°C but can spike 8°C above amid blocking patterns. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control—such as sensor recalibrations or overlooked remote station peaks—but IMGW preliminary bulletins rarely shift after 24 hours, with final reports due May 6.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Обсяг
$87,819Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) confirm Warsaw's highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 27°C at key monitoring stations, including Chopin Airport, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns with the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs from May 3, which forecasted peak highs of 26–28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge bringing warm continental air masses, consistent with early May climatological norms where daily maxima average 19°C but can spike 8°C above amid blocking patterns. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control—such as sensor recalibrations or overlooked remote station peaks—but IMGW preliminary bulletins rarely shift after 24 hours, with final reports due May 6.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$87,819Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) confirm Warsaw's highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 27°C at key monitoring stations, including Chopin Airport, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns with the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs from May 3, which forecasted peak highs of 26–28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge bringing warm continental air masses, consistent with early May climatological norms where daily maxima average 19°C but can spike 8°C above amid blocking patterns. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control—such as sensor recalibrations or overlooked remote station peaks—but IMGW preliminary bulletins rarely shift after 24 hours, with final reports due May 6.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання