Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports confirm the city's highest temperature on May 5 peaked at 28°C during midday hours, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid clear skies and a dominant high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to maximize surface temperatures. Hourly data showed steady climbs from morning lows near 12°C, topping out at 28°C before diurnal cooling set in, aligning with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts that converged on 27-29°C highs over the past 48 hours. This exceeds Warsaw's early May climatological average of 18-20°C, reflecting mild advection from southern air masses. Realistic challenges would require anomalous late-day urban heat island effects or discrepant readings from secondary stations prompting IMGW revisions, though multi-site consensus renders this improbable; final daily validation expected by evening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 5?
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$71,666 Обс.
$71,666 Обс.
May 5, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$71,666 Обс.
$71,666 Обс.
May 5, 2026
20°C or below
$1,859 Обс.
No
21°C
$1,504 Обс.
No
22°C
$1,838 Обс.
No
23°C
$2,398 Обс.
No
24°C
$2,718 Обс.
No
25°C
$4,262 Обс.
No
26°C
$7,788 Обс.
No
27°C
$14,548 Обс.
No
28°C
$10,972 Обс.
Yes
29°C
$12,616 Обс.
No
30°C or higher
$11,164 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports confirm the city's highest temperature on May 5 peaked at 28°C during midday hours, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid clear skies and a dominant high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to maximize surface temperatures. Hourly data showed steady climbs from morning lows near 12°C, topping out at 28°C before diurnal cooling set in, aligning with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts that converged on 27-29°C highs over the past 48 hours. This exceeds Warsaw's early May climatological average of 18-20°C, reflecting mild advection from southern air masses. Realistic challenges would require anomalous late-day urban heat island effects or discrepant readings from secondary stations prompting IMGW revisions, though multi-site consensus renders this improbable; final daily validation expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Обсяг
$71,666Дата завершення
May 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports confirm the city's highest temperature on May 5 peaked at 28°C during midday hours, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid clear skies and a dominant high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to maximize surface temperatures. Hourly data showed steady climbs from morning lows near 12°C, topping out at 28°C before diurnal cooling set in, aligning with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts that converged on 27-29°C highs over the past 48 hours. This exceeds Warsaw's early May climatological average of 18-20°C, reflecting mild advection from southern air masses. Realistic challenges would require anomalous late-day urban heat island effects or discrepant readings from secondary stations prompting IMGW revisions, though multi-site consensus renders this improbable; final daily validation expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$71,666Дата завершення
May 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports confirm the city's highest temperature on May 5 peaked at 28°C during midday hours, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid clear skies and a dominant high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to maximize surface temperatures. Hourly data showed steady climbs from morning lows near 12°C, topping out at 28°C before diurnal cooling set in, aligning with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts that converged on 27-29°C highs over the past 48 hours. This exceeds Warsaw's early May climatological average of 18-20°C, reflecting mild advection from southern air masses. Realistic challenges would require anomalous late-day urban heat island effects or discrepant readings from secondary stations prompting IMGW revisions, though multi-site consensus renders this improbable; final daily validation expected by evening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання