**Strong southerly winds and a burst of cooler polar air are positioning 9–10°C as the dominant outcomes for Wellington’s maximum temperature on August 16.** Official MetService forecasts indicate a daytime high near 9°C with overnight lows around 5–7°C under persistent southerlies, while other models (BBC, WeatherWatch) cluster between 9–10°C. These align closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 10°C (63.5%) and 9°C (22.5%), reflecting trader consensus on limited warming potential. August climatology for Wellington centers on daytime maxima around 12°C, but recent regional patterns—following a cooler-than-average stretch and the seasonal outlook favoring near-to-below-average temperatures—support subdued readings. Key resolution factors include official station measurements of the daily high; no major model shifts or warm-air advection are currently indicated ahead of the 24-hour window. Updated forecast runs over the next 12–24 hours remain the primary near-term catalyst that could adjust implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 64%
9°C 22%
11°C 11%
8°C 4%
НОВЕ
$17,450 Обс.
НОВЕ
$17,450 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
4%
9°C
22%
10°C
64%
11°C
11%
12°C
2%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 64%
9°C 22%
11°C 11%
8°C 4%
НОВЕ
$17,450 Обс.
НОВЕ
$17,450 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$223 Обс.
<1%
5°C
$907 Обс.
<1%
6°C
$1,049 Обс.
<1%
7°C
$2,572 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$1,997 Обс.
4%
9°C
$3,230 Обс.
22%
10°C
$3,441 Обс.
64%
11°C
$1,947 Обс.
11%
12°C
$1,269 Обс.
2%
13°C
$529 Обс.
<1%
14°C or higher
$287 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong southerly winds and a burst of cooler polar air are positioning 9–10°C as the dominant outcomes for Wellington’s maximum temperature on August 16.** Official MetService forecasts indicate a daytime high near 9°C with overnight lows around 5–7°C under persistent southerlies, while other models (BBC, WeatherWatch) cluster between 9–10°C. These align closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 10°C (63.5%) and 9°C (22.5%), reflecting trader consensus on limited warming potential.
August climatology for Wellington centers on daytime maxima around 12°C, but recent regional patterns—following a cooler-than-average stretch and the seasonal outlook favoring near-to-below-average temperatures—support subdued readings. Key resolution factors include official station measurements of the daily high; no major model shifts or warm-air advection are currently indicated ahead of the 24-hour window. Updated forecast runs over the next 12–24 hours remain the primary near-term catalyst that could adjust implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$17,450Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong southerly winds and a burst of cooler polar air are positioning 9–10°C as the dominant outcomes for Wellington’s maximum temperature on August 16.** Official MetService forecasts indicate a daytime high near 9°C with overnight lows around 5–7°C under persistent southerlies, while other models (BBC, WeatherWatch) cluster between 9–10°C. These align closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 10°C (63.5%) and 9°C (22.5%), reflecting trader consensus on limited warming potential.
August climatology for Wellington centers on daytime maxima around 12°C, but recent regional patterns—following a cooler-than-average stretch and the seasonal outlook favoring near-to-below-average temperatures—support subdued readings. Key resolution factors include official station measurements of the daily high; no major model shifts or warm-air advection are currently indicated ahead of the 24-hour window. Updated forecast runs over the next 12–24 hours remain the primary near-term catalyst that could adjust implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$17,450Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong southerly winds and a burst of cooler polar air are positioning 9–10°C as the dominant outcomes for Wellington’s maximum temperature on August 16.** Official MetService forecasts indicate a daytime high near 9°C with overnight lows around 5–7°C under persistent southerlies, while other models (BBC, WeatherWatch) cluster between 9–10°C. These align closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 10°C (63.5%) and 9°C (22.5%), reflecting trader consensus on limited warming potential. August climatology for Wellington centers on daytime maxima around 12°C, but recent regional patterns—following a cooler-than-average stretch and the seasonal outlook favoring near-to-below-average temperatures—support subdued readings. Key resolution factors include official station measurements of the daily high; no major model shifts or warm-air advection are currently indicated ahead of the 24-hour window. Updated forecast runs over the next 12–24 hours remain the primary near-term catalyst that could adjust implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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