Latest meteorological guidance positions 14°C as the market leader for Wellington’s August 15 maximum because short-range models from MetService and international guidance converge on a mild winter day with highs near 14–15 °C under light variable winds and only isolated showers. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA confirm near-average temperatures for the region, consistent with typical August climatology of 13–14 °C. Recent model runs show little spread, keeping the 15 °C outcome as a plausible secondary outcome should daytime heating exceed expectations or winds turn northerly. Traders are weighting these consensus forecasts heavily, with only modest probability assigned to cooler or warmer extremes pending the next forecast update.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
14°C 54%
15°C 33%
13°C 7%
16°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
7%
14°C
54%
15°C
33%
16°C
7%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 54%
15°C 33%
13°C 7%
16°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
$316 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$169 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$176 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$1,012 Обс.
3%
13°C
$1,803 Обс.
7%
14°C
$756 Обс.
54%
15°C
$1,347 Обс.
33%
16°C
$401 Обс.
7%
17°C
$189 Обс.
1%
18°C
$245 Обс.
<1%
19°C or higher
$417 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological guidance positions 14°C as the market leader for Wellington’s August 15 maximum because short-range models from MetService and international guidance converge on a mild winter day with highs near 14–15 °C under light variable winds and only isolated showers. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA confirm near-average temperatures for the region, consistent with typical August climatology of 13–14 °C. Recent model runs show little spread, keeping the 15 °C outcome as a plausible secondary outcome should daytime heating exceed expectations or winds turn northerly. Traders are weighting these consensus forecasts heavily, with only modest probability assigned to cooler or warmer extremes pending the next forecast update.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,828Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological guidance positions 14°C as the market leader for Wellington’s August 15 maximum because short-range models from MetService and international guidance converge on a mild winter day with highs near 14–15 °C under light variable winds and only isolated showers. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA confirm near-average temperatures for the region, consistent with typical August climatology of 13–14 °C. Recent model runs show little spread, keeping the 15 °C outcome as a plausible secondary outcome should daytime heating exceed expectations or winds turn northerly. Traders are weighting these consensus forecasts heavily, with only modest probability assigned to cooler or warmer extremes pending the next forecast update.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,828Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest meteorological guidance positions 14°C as the market leader for Wellington’s August 15 maximum because short-range models from MetService and international guidance converge on a mild winter day with highs near 14–15 °C under light variable winds and only isolated showers. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA confirm near-average temperatures for the region, consistent with typical August climatology of 13–14 °C. Recent model runs show little spread, keeping the 15 °C outcome as a plausible secondary outcome should daytime heating exceed expectations or winds turn northerly. Traders are weighting these consensus forecasts heavily, with only modest probability assigned to cooler or warmer extremes pending the next forecast update.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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