Trader consensus centers on 31–32°C for Beijing’s August 15 high because ensemble forecasts and climatological averages place mid-August maxima near 30–31°C, with model spreads allowing modest upside. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity typically limit daytime peaks while increasing the chance of afternoon thunderstorms that can cap temperatures. Recent runs from global and regional models show limited warming signals ahead of the date, keeping lower outcomes like 30°C viable if convective activity strengthens. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add further uncertainty within the narrow 1°C bands dominating probabilities. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
32°C 34%
31°C 29%
33°C 19%
30°C 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
15%
31°C
29%
32°C
34%
33°C
19%
34°C
6%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 34%
31°C 29%
33°C 19%
30°C 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$98 Обс.
1%
28°C
$35 Обс.
3%
29°C
$298 Обс.
4%
30°C
$123 Обс.
15%
31°C
$164 Обс.
29%
32°C
$160 Обс.
34%
33°C
$97 Обс.
19%
34°C
$57 Обс.
6%
35°C
$36 Обс.
1%
36°C
$48 Обс.
1%
37°C or higher
$46 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 31–32°C for Beijing’s August 15 high because ensemble forecasts and climatological averages place mid-August maxima near 30–31°C, with model spreads allowing modest upside. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity typically limit daytime peaks while increasing the chance of afternoon thunderstorms that can cap temperatures. Recent runs from global and regional models show limited warming signals ahead of the date, keeping lower outcomes like 30°C viable if convective activity strengthens. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add further uncertainty within the narrow 1°C bands dominating probabilities. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,160Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 31–32°C for Beijing’s August 15 high because ensemble forecasts and climatological averages place mid-August maxima near 30–31°C, with model spreads allowing modest upside. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity typically limit daytime peaks while increasing the chance of afternoon thunderstorms that can cap temperatures. Recent runs from global and regional models show limited warming signals ahead of the date, keeping lower outcomes like 30°C viable if convective activity strengthens. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add further uncertainty within the narrow 1°C bands dominating probabilities. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,160Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on 31–32°C for Beijing’s August 15 high because ensemble forecasts and climatological averages place mid-August maxima near 30–31°C, with model spreads allowing modest upside. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity typically limit daytime peaks while increasing the chance of afternoon thunderstorms that can cap temperatures. Recent runs from global and regional models show limited warming signals ahead of the date, keeping lower outcomes like 30°C viable if convective activity strengthens. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add further uncertainty within the narrow 1°C bands dominating probabilities. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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