The contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski in the October 8 by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, drives the tight distribution of implied probabilities around 25-35% for the Green vote share. Recent Camden local election results showed Greens closing the gap on Labour amid gains in the constituency, bolstered by Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski and local focus on housing, crime, and foreign policy issues. By-election dynamics, including protest voting and variable turnout in this urban, left-leaning seat, sustain uncertainty between the leading bins, with traders pricing in momentum from Green campaigning while noting Labour’s organizational edge and historical strength in the area.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено25-30% 32%
30-35% 25%
20-25% 22%
<20% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
16%
20-25%
22%
25-30%
32%
30-35%
25%
35-40%
10%
40%+
6%
25-30% 32%
30-35% 25%
20-25% 22%
<20% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$349 Обс.
16%
20-25%
$114 Обс.
22%
25-30%
$273 Обс.
32%
30-35%
$132 Обс.
25%
35-40%
$113 Обс.
10%
40%+
$120 Обс.
6%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski in the October 8 by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, drives the tight distribution of implied probabilities around 25-35% for the Green vote share. Recent Camden local election results showed Greens closing the gap on Labour amid gains in the constituency, bolstered by Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski and local focus on housing, crime, and foreign policy issues. By-election dynamics, including protest voting and variable turnout in this urban, left-leaning seat, sustain uncertainty between the leading bins, with traders pricing in momentum from Green campaigning while noting Labour’s organizational edge and historical strength in the area.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,103Дата завершення
Oct 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski in the October 8 by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, drives the tight distribution of implied probabilities around 25-35% for the Green vote share. Recent Camden local election results showed Greens closing the gap on Labour amid gains in the constituency, bolstered by Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski and local focus on housing, crime, and foreign policy issues. By-election dynamics, including protest voting and variable turnout in this urban, left-leaning seat, sustain uncertainty between the leading bins, with traders pricing in momentum from Green campaigning while noting Labour’s organizational edge and historical strength in the area.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Обсяг
$1,103Дата завершення
Oct 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski in the October 8 by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, drives the tight distribution of implied probabilities around 25-35% for the Green vote share. Recent Camden local election results showed Greens closing the gap on Labour amid gains in the constituency, bolstered by Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski and local focus on housing, crime, and foreign policy issues. By-election dynamics, including protest voting and variable turnout in this urban, left-leaning seat, sustain uncertainty between the leading bins, with traders pricing in momentum from Green campaigning while noting Labour’s organizational edge and historical strength in the area.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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