Recent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45% year-over-year, up from 4.38% in June and marking the highest reading since late 2024, has reinforced market-implied odds of 79.5% for annual inflation finishing at 4.50% or higher. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with food and beverage inflation near 5.5% and rupee depreciation, continue to exert upward pressure, aligning with RBI projections of around 5% for FY27 and analyst forecasts in the 5.0-5.2% range. These factors have sustained the strong trader consensus, as reflected in Polymarket's aggregated positions backed by real capital, while lower bands below 3.75% attract minimal implied probability amid limited signs of rapid disinflation. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI on September 12, will further shape near-term sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.50%+ 80%
3.75% to 4.49% 13.3%
<0.75% 3.1%
3.00% to 3.74% 2.5%
$78,329 Обс.
$78,329 Обс.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
3%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
1%
2.25% to 2.99%
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
3%
3.75% to 4.49%
13%
4.50%+
80%
4.50%+ 80%
3.75% to 4.49% 13.3%
<0.75% 3.1%
3.00% to 3.74% 2.5%
$78,329 Обс.
$78,329 Обс.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$1,769 Обс.
3%
0.75% to 1.49%
$1,191 Обс.
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
$1,275 Обс.
1%
2.25% to 2.99%
$24,989 Обс.
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
$2,081 Обс.
3%
3.75% to 4.49%
$29,540 Обс.
13%
4.50%+
$17,483 Обс.
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45% year-over-year, up from 4.38% in June and marking the highest reading since late 2024, has reinforced market-implied odds of 79.5% for annual inflation finishing at 4.50% or higher. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with food and beverage inflation near 5.5% and rupee depreciation, continue to exert upward pressure, aligning with RBI projections of around 5% for FY27 and analyst forecasts in the 5.0-5.2% range. These factors have sustained the strong trader consensus, as reflected in Polymarket's aggregated positions backed by real capital, while lower bands below 3.75% attract minimal implied probability amid limited signs of rapid disinflation. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI on September 12, will further shape near-term sentiment.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$78,329Дата завершення
Jan 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45% year-over-year, up from 4.38% in June and marking the highest reading since late 2024, has reinforced market-implied odds of 79.5% for annual inflation finishing at 4.50% or higher. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with food and beverage inflation near 5.5% and rupee depreciation, continue to exert upward pressure, aligning with RBI projections of around 5% for FY27 and analyst forecasts in the 5.0-5.2% range. These factors have sustained the strong trader consensus, as reflected in Polymarket's aggregated positions backed by real capital, while lower bands below 3.75% attract minimal implied probability amid limited signs of rapid disinflation. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI on September 12, will further shape near-term sentiment.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Обсяг
$78,329Дата завершення
Jan 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45% year-over-year, up from 4.38% in June and marking the highest reading since late 2024, has reinforced market-implied odds of 79.5% for annual inflation finishing at 4.50% or higher. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with food and beverage inflation near 5.5% and rupee depreciation, continue to exert upward pressure, aligning with RBI projections of around 5% for FY27 and analyst forecasts in the 5.0-5.2% range. These factors have sustained the strong trader consensus, as reflected in Polymarket's aggregated positions backed by real capital, while lower bands below 3.75% attract minimal implied probability amid limited signs of rapid disinflation. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI on September 12, will further shape near-term sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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