US and Iranian officials have signaled continued adherence to the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire that began on April 8 and was later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent diplomatic signal came on May 19 when Trump described progress in ongoing talks as a positive development, even as intermittent clashes persist in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian-backed groups conduct limited drone operations. Both sides continue to exchange proposals on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and maritime access while maintaining military postures that include a US naval presence and Iranian restrictions on shipping. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any major escalation in the past week, though the fragile status of negotiations leaves room for rapid shifts if either party rejects the latest framework or incidents escalate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
$1,537,689 Обс.
May 20
100%
May 21
98%
May 22
95%
May 24
86%
May 27
78%
May 31
70%
June 7
64%
June 15
56%
June 30
49%
July 31
40%
December 31
36%
$1,537,689 Обс.
May 20
$299,411 Обс.
100%
May 21
$507,249 Обс.
98%
May 22
$249,412 Обс.
95%
May 24
$224,514 Обс.
86%
May 27
$56,604 Обс.
78%
May 31
$89,301 Обс.
70%
June 7
$22,075 Обс.
64%
June 15
$18,706 Обс.
56%
June 30
$27,824 Обс.
49%
July 31
$12,236 Обс.
40%
December 31
$40,337 Обс.
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Iranian officials have signaled continued adherence to the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire that began on April 8 and was later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent diplomatic signal came on May 19 when Trump described progress in ongoing talks as a positive development, even as intermittent clashes persist in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian-backed groups conduct limited drone operations. Both sides continue to exchange proposals on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and maritime access while maintaining military postures that include a US naval presence and Iranian restrictions on shipping. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any major escalation in the past week, though the fragile status of negotiations leaves room for rapid shifts if either party rejects the latest framework or incidents escalate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,537,689Ринок відкрито
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Iranian officials have signaled continued adherence to the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire that began on April 8 and was later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent diplomatic signal came on May 19 when Trump described progress in ongoing talks as a positive development, even as intermittent clashes persist in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian-backed groups conduct limited drone operations. Both sides continue to exchange proposals on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and maritime access while maintaining military postures that include a US naval presence and Iranian restrictions on shipping. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any major escalation in the past week, though the fragile status of negotiations leaves room for rapid shifts if either party rejects the latest framework or incidents escalate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,537,689Ринок відкрито
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Iranian officials have signaled continued adherence to the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire that began on April 8 and was later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent diplomatic signal came on May 19 when Trump described progress in ongoing talks as a positive development, even as intermittent clashes persist in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian-backed groups conduct limited drone operations. Both sides continue to exchange proposals on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and maritime access while maintaining military postures that include a US naval presence and Iranian restrictions on shipping. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any major escalation in the past week, though the fragile status of negotiations leaves room for rapid shifts if either party rejects the latest framework or incidents escalate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання