Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026 to pursue self-determination and coordinate against the regime amid ongoing protests and cross-border strikes, yet their statements emphasize transitional administration of Kurdish areas within a post-regime Iranian framework rather than immediate secession. Iran has responded with missile and drone strikes on opposition bases in Iraq, while external discussions of potential support for Kurdish actors have not translated into coordinated moves toward formal independence. Regional actors including Turkey and Iraq maintain strong opposition to any fragmentation, and historical patterns show Kurdish demands in Iran centering on autonomy or federal arrangements. Full independence would require sustained regime collapse, unified internal momentum, and international recognition unlikely under current conditions. Late escalation in the broader conflict or shifts in great-power involvement remain the primary variables that could reopen the question.