Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, including the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan formed in February 2026, have prioritized regime change, self-determination, and potential federal arrangements within a post-regime Iran over any formal secession. Their public statements emphasize democratic governance and cooperation with other Iranian opposition forces rather than establishing an independent state, consistent with historical patterns where armed and political activity has sought greater autonomy without crossing into outright partition. Iranian security forces maintain firm control over Kurdish-majority areas despite protests and reported cross-border movements, while neighboring states and major powers oppose territorial fragmentation. Traders assign only a 2% chance of a qualifying declaration by the June 30, 2026 resolution date, though escalation creating a sustained power vacuum or shifts in coalition strategy could still alter that assessment.