Recent model consensus from GFS and European guidance shows Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light winds on September 7, favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight after daytime highs near 36–37°C. Forecast lows cluster around 20–23°C, consistent with a warmer-than-average early-September pattern that has suppressed typical autumn cooling. This positions the 20°C-or-below outcome as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability, while 21–22°C brackets capture residual uncertainty in minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated runs over the past 48 hours have shown little shift, keeping trader focus on any late-model cooling signals before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
24°C 19%
25°C 19%
26°C 19%
30°C or higher 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
20°C or below
47%
21°C
14%
22°C
17%
23°C
2%
24°C
19%
25°C
19%
26°C
19%
27°C
14%
28°C
15%
29°C
8%
30°C or higher
19%
24°C 19%
25°C 19%
26°C 19%
30°C or higher 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
20°C or below
$25 Обс.
47%
21°C
$47 Обс.
14%
22°C
$0 Обс.
17%
23°C
$0 Обс.
2%
24°C
$0 Обс.
19%
25°C
$0 Обс.
19%
26°C
$0 Обс.
19%
27°C
$0 Обс.
14%
28°C
$0 Обс.
15%
29°C
$0 Обс.
8%
30°C or higher
$0 Обс.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and European guidance shows Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light winds on September 7, favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight after daytime highs near 36–37°C. Forecast lows cluster around 20–23°C, consistent with a warmer-than-average early-September pattern that has suppressed typical autumn cooling. This positions the 20°C-or-below outcome as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability, while 21–22°C brackets capture residual uncertainty in minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated runs over the past 48 hours have shown little shift, keeping trader focus on any late-model cooling signals before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$72Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and European guidance shows Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light winds on September 7, favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight after daytime highs near 36–37°C. Forecast lows cluster around 20–23°C, consistent with a warmer-than-average early-September pattern that has suppressed typical autumn cooling. This positions the 20°C-or-below outcome as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability, while 21–22°C brackets capture residual uncertainty in minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated runs over the past 48 hours have shown little shift, keeping trader focus on any late-model cooling signals before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$72Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from GFS and European guidance shows Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light winds on September 7, favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight after daytime highs near 36–37°C. Forecast lows cluster around 20–23°C, consistent with a warmer-than-average early-September pattern that has suppressed typical autumn cooling. This positions the 20°C-or-below outcome as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability, while 21–22°C brackets capture residual uncertainty in minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated runs over the past 48 hours have shown little shift, keeping trader focus on any late-model cooling signals before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання