Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and European forecasts points to a high of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 47% for 37°C and 33.5% for 36°C. Persistent high pressure, southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover have sustained an early-September heatwave, with observed highs already reaching 38–39°C on September 4. Low humidity and strong daytime insolation favor peak temperatures in the upper 30s Celsius, while historical September 6 averages near 29°C and a 2016 record of 38.9°C provide climatological context. Minor model spread on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling keeps 38°C as a secondary possibility at 14%, with lower outcomes remaining remote absent an unexpected frontal shift. Updated AEMET guidance and final hourly observations will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
37°C 47%
36°C 34%
38°C 15%
35°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 6, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
3%
35°C
7%
36°C
34%
37°C
47%
38°C
15%
39°C
3%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 47%
36°C 34%
38°C 15%
35°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 6, 2026
33°C or below
$33 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$1 Обс.
3%
35°C
$218 Обс.
7%
36°C
$501 Обс.
34%
37°C
$208 Обс.
47%
38°C
$311 Обс.
15%
39°C
$5 Обс.
3%
40°C
$5 Обс.
2%
41°C
$0 Обс.
1%
42°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
43°C or higher
$36 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and European forecasts points to a high of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 47% for 37°C and 33.5% for 36°C. Persistent high pressure, southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover have sustained an early-September heatwave, with observed highs already reaching 38–39°C on September 4. Low humidity and strong daytime insolation favor peak temperatures in the upper 30s Celsius, while historical September 6 averages near 29°C and a 2016 record of 38.9°C provide climatological context. Minor model spread on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling keeps 38°C as a secondary possibility at 14%, with lower outcomes remaining remote absent an unexpected frontal shift. Updated AEMET guidance and final hourly observations will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,317Дата завершення
Sep 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and European forecasts points to a high of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 47% for 37°C and 33.5% for 36°C. Persistent high pressure, southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover have sustained an early-September heatwave, with observed highs already reaching 38–39°C on September 4. Low humidity and strong daytime insolation favor peak temperatures in the upper 30s Celsius, while historical September 6 averages near 29°C and a 2016 record of 38.9°C provide climatological context. Minor model spread on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling keeps 38°C as a secondary possibility at 14%, with lower outcomes remaining remote absent an unexpected frontal shift. Updated AEMET guidance and final hourly observations will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,317Дата завершення
Sep 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and European forecasts points to a high of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 47% for 37°C and 33.5% for 36°C. Persistent high pressure, southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover have sustained an early-September heatwave, with observed highs already reaching 38–39°C on September 4. Low humidity and strong daytime insolation favor peak temperatures in the upper 30s Celsius, while historical September 6 averages near 29°C and a 2016 record of 38.9°C provide climatological context. Minor model spread on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling keeps 38°C as a secondary possibility at 14%, with lower outcomes remaining remote absent an unexpected frontal shift. Updated AEMET guidance and final hourly observations will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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