Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?
24°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 Обс.
$92,911 Обс.
Jul 18, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 Обс.
$92,911 Обс.
Jul 18, 2026
23°C or below
$5,158 Обс.
No
24°C
$5,202 Обс.
Yes
25°C
$20,915 Обс.
No
26°C
$23,410 Обс.
No
27°C
$4,775 Обс.
No
28°C
$12,798 Обс.
No
29°C
$6,126 Обс.
No
30°C
$5,940 Обс.
No
31°C
$7,394 Обс.
No
32°C
$726 Обс.
No
33°C or higher
$468 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$92,911Дата завершення
Jul 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$92,911Дата завершення
Jul 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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