Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 9?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 9?
17°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$31,556 Обс.
$31,556 Обс.
May 9, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$31,556 Обс.
$31,556 Обс.
May 9, 2026
13°C or below
$6,574 Обс.
No
14°C
$1,308 Обс.
No
15°C
$3,475 Обс.
No
16°C
$1,999 Обс.
No
17°C
$3,410 Обс.
Yes
18°C
$3,140 Обс.
No
19°C
$3,911 Обс.
No
20°C
$1,530 Обс.
No
21°C
$1,937 Обс.
No
22°C
$2,543 Обс.
No
23°C or higher
$1,728 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$31,556Дата завершення
May 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$31,556Дата завершення
May 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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