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icon for Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Політика·Культура

Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?

icon for Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Політика·Культура

Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?

9% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
9% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The 86% market-implied probability for “No” on Luigi Mangione facing trial before 2027 reflects the cumulative effect of repeated scheduling delays and a major August 2026 development that effectively paused the remaining state case.** Mangione’s federal stalking charges were resolved via guilty plea on August 14, 2026, with sentencing set for December 18; that eliminated any federal trial. The parallel New York state murder trial, originally slated for jury selection on September 8, was postponed indefinitely after his attorneys immediately moved to dismiss on double-jeopardy grounds. The state judge ordered prosecutors to respond by October 9 and set the next hearing for December 10—well after the federal sentencing—leaving the case in procedural limbo. Earlier in 2026 the federal trial itself had already been pushed to January 2027 to avoid conflict with the state proceeding. With the double-jeopardy motion now pending and the next substantive state-court date in December, traders see little realistic path for either case to reach a full trial before the new year. The market therefore prices the strong likelihood that Mangione will not stand trial in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,095
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Dec 17, 2025, 4:18 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The 86% market-implied probability for “No” on Luigi Mangione facing trial before 2027 reflects the cumulative effect of repeated scheduling delays and a major August 2026 development that effectively paused the remaining state case.** Mangione’s federal stalking charges were resolved via guilty plea on August 14, 2026, with sentencing set for December 18; that eliminated any federal trial. The parallel New York state murder trial, originally slated for jury selection on September 8, was postponed indefinitely after his attorneys immediately moved to dismiss on double-jeopardy grounds. The state judge ordered prosecutors to respond by October 9 and set the next hearing for December 10—well after the federal sentencing—leaving the case in procedural limbo. Earlier in 2026 the federal trial itself had already been pushed to January 2027 to avoid conflict with the state proceeding. With the double-jeopardy motion now pending and the next substantive state-court date in December, traders see little realistic path for either case to reach a full trial before the new year. The market therefore prices the strong likelihood that Mangione will not stand trial in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,095
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Dec 17, 2025, 4:18 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 15% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 15¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 15%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Dec 17, 2025. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?» — 15% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 15% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.