Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Michael Jackson biopic grossing $35-38 million in its third domestic weekend at 55.7% implied probability, buoyed by a stellar second-weekend hold of $54.4 million—a mere 44% drop from its record-shattering $97 million debut despite scathing critical reviews. Strong word-of-mouth and audience enthusiasm, evidenced by high repeat viewings and A CinemaScore, have propelled the film past $184 million domestic and $440 million worldwide, defying expectations for steeper declines seen in similar musical biopics. Lower tiers like $32-35 million (27.5%) account for potential competition from holdovers, while upside above $38 million remains slim at 8.5% absent previews signaling extraordinary legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody. Friday tracking will be pivotal as the frame unfolds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено"Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office
35-38m 55.0%
32-35m 28%
<32m 14%
>38m 10.5%
НОВЕ
$30,154 Обс.
НОВЕ
$30,154 Обс.
May 11, 2026
<32m
14%
32-35m
28%
35-38m
55%
>38m
11%
35-38m 55.0%
32-35m 28%
<32m 14%
>38m 10.5%
НОВЕ
$30,154 Обс.
НОВЕ
$30,154 Обс.
May 11, 2026
<32m
$19,470 Обс.
14%
32-35m
$3,358 Обс.
28%
35-38m
$2,057 Обс.
55%
>38m
$5,269 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Michael Jackson biopic grossing $35-38 million in its third domestic weekend at 55.7% implied probability, buoyed by a stellar second-weekend hold of $54.4 million—a mere 44% drop from its record-shattering $97 million debut despite scathing critical reviews. Strong word-of-mouth and audience enthusiasm, evidenced by high repeat viewings and A CinemaScore, have propelled the film past $184 million domestic and $440 million worldwide, defying expectations for steeper declines seen in similar musical biopics. Lower tiers like $32-35 million (27.5%) account for potential competition from holdovers, while upside above $38 million remains slim at 8.5% absent previews signaling extraordinary legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody. Friday tracking will be pivotal as the frame unfolds.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$30,154Дата завершення
May 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Michael Jackson biopic grossing $35-38 million in its third domestic weekend at 55.7% implied probability, buoyed by a stellar second-weekend hold of $54.4 million—a mere 44% drop from its record-shattering $97 million debut despite scathing critical reviews. Strong word-of-mouth and audience enthusiasm, evidenced by high repeat viewings and A CinemaScore, have propelled the film past $184 million domestic and $440 million worldwide, defying expectations for steeper declines seen in similar musical biopics. Lower tiers like $32-35 million (27.5%) account for potential competition from holdovers, while upside above $38 million remains slim at 8.5% absent previews signaling extraordinary legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody. Friday tracking will be pivotal as the frame unfolds.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$30,154Дата завершення
May 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Michael Jackson biopic grossing $35-38 million in its third domestic weekend at 55.7% implied probability, buoyed by a stellar second-weekend hold of $54.4 million—a mere 44% drop from its record-shattering $97 million debut despite scathing critical reviews. Strong word-of-mouth and audience enthusiasm, evidenced by high repeat viewings and A CinemaScore, have propelled the film past $184 million domestic and $440 million worldwide, defying expectations for steeper declines seen in similar musical biopics. Lower tiers like $32-35 million (27.5%) account for potential competition from holdovers, while upside above $38 million remains slim at 8.5% absent previews signaling extraordinary legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody. Friday tracking will be pivotal as the frame unfolds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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