Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63% implied probability to no named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook on April 17 confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential across the basin. This aligns with historical rarity—pre-season named storms occur in only about one-third of recent years, typically requiring sustained sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C (80°F) and low wind shear, conditions not yet met amid current weak La Niña patterns favoring subdued early activity despite slightly above-normal western Atlantic SSTs. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal 2026 season activity further bolsters "No" sentiment, though uncertainty persists as NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, with model runs potentially tracking any emerging waves.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$332,115 Обс.
$332,115 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$332,115 Обс.
$332,115 Обс.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63% implied probability to no named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook on April 17 confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential across the basin. This aligns with historical rarity—pre-season named storms occur in only about one-third of recent years, typically requiring sustained sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C (80°F) and low wind shear, conditions not yet met amid current weak La Niña patterns favoring subdued early activity despite slightly above-normal western Atlantic SSTs. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal 2026 season activity further bolsters "No" sentiment, though uncertainty persists as NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, with model runs potentially tracking any emerging waves.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$332,115Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63% implied probability to no named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook on April 17 confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential across the basin. This aligns with historical rarity—pre-season named storms occur in only about one-third of recent years, typically requiring sustained sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C (80°F) and low wind shear, conditions not yet met amid current weak La Niña patterns favoring subdued early activity despite slightly above-normal western Atlantic SSTs. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal 2026 season activity further bolsters "No" sentiment, though uncertainty persists as NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, with model runs potentially tracking any emerging waves.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Обсяг
$332,115Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63% implied probability to no named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook on April 17 confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential across the basin. This aligns with historical rarity—pre-season named storms occur in only about one-third of recent years, typically requiring sustained sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C (80°F) and low wind shear, conditions not yet met amid current weak La Niña patterns favoring subdued early activity despite slightly above-normal western Atlantic SSTs. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal 2026 season activity further bolsters "No" sentiment, though uncertainty persists as NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, with model runs potentially tracking any emerging waves.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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