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icon for US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Геополітика·Припинення вогню в Ірані

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

icon for US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Геополітика·Припинення вогню в Ірані

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ended: May 31

Ended: May 31

<1% шанс
Polymarket

$6,905,767 Обс.

<1% шанс
Polymarket

$6,905,767 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran in late May 2026 produced tentative agreements to extend a ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate 60-day talks addressing Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpiles. However, no comprehensive nuclear deal was finalized or announced by the May 31 deadline. Senior officials, including President Trump and Vice President Vance, described the sides as close but noted remaining gaps on core issues such as inspections, sanctions relief, and enrichment limits. This absence of a concluded agreement by the cutoff date underpins trader consensus on the "No" outcome. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or formal approvals occurring after the window could still prompt review, though none materialized within the specified period.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$6,905,767
Дата завершення
May 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Результат запропоновано: No

Без оскарження

Кінцевий результат: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran in late May 2026 produced tentative agreements to extend a ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate 60-day talks addressing Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpiles. However, no comprehensive nuclear deal was finalized or announced by the May 31 deadline. Senior officials, including President Trump and Vice President Vance, described the sides as close but noted remaining gaps on core issues such as inspections, sanctions relief, and enrichment limits. This absence of a concluded agreement by the cutoff date underpins trader consensus on the "No" outcome. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or formal approvals occurring after the window could still prompt review, though none materialized within the specified period.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$6,905,767
Дата завершення
May 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Результат запропоновано: No

Без оскарження

Кінцевий результат: No

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 0% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 0¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 0%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?» згенерував $6.9 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 28, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?» — 0% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 0% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.