Recent polling shows a fragmented primary vote in the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, with the Liberal–National Coalition typically leading around 26–30 percent, followed closely by One Nation at 22–27 percent and Labor at 21–26 percent. This three-way split, driven by One Nation’s sustained rise amid voter dissatisfaction and Labor’s leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July, keeps the contest for second and third place highly competitive. Electoral reforms abolishing group voting tickets for the Legislative Council add uncertainty to preference flows and minor-party outcomes. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for third place due to its established base and organizational strength, while One Nation’s momentum creates the main risk of displacing it. Minor parties such as the Greens remain well behind in primary support, limiting their path to third. Upcoming campaign events and further polls could widen or narrow the gap between Labor and One Nation before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Labor 39%
One Nation 34%
Greens 4.1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 4.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
39%
One Nation
57%
Greens
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
Animal Justice
4%
Liberal–National
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Libertarian
4%
Labor 39%
One Nation 34%
Greens 4.1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 4.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$4 Обс.
39%
One Nation
$40 Обс.
57%
Greens
$0 Обс.
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Обс.
4%
Animal Justice
$0 Обс.
4%
Liberal–National
$0 Обс.
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Обс.
4%
Libertarian
$0 Обс.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling shows a fragmented primary vote in the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, with the Liberal–National Coalition typically leading around 26–30 percent, followed closely by One Nation at 22–27 percent and Labor at 21–26 percent. This three-way split, driven by One Nation’s sustained rise amid voter dissatisfaction and Labor’s leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July, keeps the contest for second and third place highly competitive. Electoral reforms abolishing group voting tickets for the Legislative Council add uncertainty to preference flows and minor-party outcomes. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for third place due to its established base and organizational strength, while One Nation’s momentum creates the main risk of displacing it. Minor parties such as the Greens remain well behind in primary support, limiting their path to third. Upcoming campaign events and further polls could widen or narrow the gap between Labor and One Nation before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$43Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling shows a fragmented primary vote in the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, with the Liberal–National Coalition typically leading around 26–30 percent, followed closely by One Nation at 22–27 percent and Labor at 21–26 percent. This three-way split, driven by One Nation’s sustained rise amid voter dissatisfaction and Labor’s leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July, keeps the contest for second and third place highly competitive. Electoral reforms abolishing group voting tickets for the Legislative Council add uncertainty to preference flows and minor-party outcomes. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for third place due to its established base and organizational strength, while One Nation’s momentum creates the main risk of displacing it. Minor parties such as the Greens remain well behind in primary support, limiting their path to third. Upcoming campaign events and further polls could widen or narrow the gap between Labor and One Nation before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Обсяг
$43Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a fragmented primary vote in the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, with the Liberal–National Coalition typically leading around 26–30 percent, followed closely by One Nation at 22–27 percent and Labor at 21–26 percent. This three-way split, driven by One Nation’s sustained rise amid voter dissatisfaction and Labor’s leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July, keeps the contest for second and third place highly competitive. Electoral reforms abolishing group voting tickets for the Legislative Council add uncertainty to preference flows and minor-party outcomes. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for third place due to its established base and organizational strength, while One Nation’s momentum creates the main risk of displacing it. Minor parties such as the Greens remain well behind in primary support, limiting their path to third. Upcoming campaign events and further polls could widen or narrow the gap between Labor and One Nation before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
72%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
66%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
62%
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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