Recent polling through August 2026 shows the Liberal-National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead of 52-55 percent over Labor, driven by sustained voter concerns over cost of living, crime, and state debt. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s despite the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, with the change producing no measurable recovery in approval ratings. One Nation’s primary support near 23 percent fragments the vote but has not altered projected Coalition seat outcomes under current preference flows. The November 28 election timeline and absence of major late-breaking events have reinforced trader consensus around a Coalition majority, while minor parties and independents remain priced as long shots absent shifts in primary fragmentation or preference dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLiberal–National 77%
Labor 20%
One Nation 4.3%
Greens <1%
$11,159 Обс.
$11,159 Обс.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
77%
Labor
20%
One Nation
4%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 77%
Labor 20%
One Nation 4.3%
Greens <1%
$11,159 Обс.
$11,159 Обс.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$6,471 Обс.
77%
Labor
$1,905 Обс.
20%
One Nation
$2,473 Обс.
4%
Greens
$310 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling through August 2026 shows the Liberal-National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead of 52-55 percent over Labor, driven by sustained voter concerns over cost of living, crime, and state debt. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s despite the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, with the change producing no measurable recovery in approval ratings. One Nation’s primary support near 23 percent fragments the vote but has not altered projected Coalition seat outcomes under current preference flows. The November 28 election timeline and absence of major late-breaking events have reinforced trader consensus around a Coalition majority, while minor parties and independents remain priced as long shots absent shifts in primary fragmentation or preference dynamics.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,159Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling through August 2026 shows the Liberal-National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead of 52-55 percent over Labor, driven by sustained voter concerns over cost of living, crime, and state debt. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s despite the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, with the change producing no measurable recovery in approval ratings. One Nation’s primary support near 23 percent fragments the vote but has not altered projected Coalition seat outcomes under current preference flows. The November 28 election timeline and absence of major late-breaking events have reinforced trader consensus around a Coalition majority, while minor parties and independents remain priced as long shots absent shifts in primary fragmentation or preference dynamics.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Обсяг
$11,159Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling through August 2026 shows the Liberal-National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead of 52-55 percent over Labor, driven by sustained voter concerns over cost of living, crime, and state debt. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s despite the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, with the change producing no measurable recovery in approval ratings. One Nation’s primary support near 23 percent fragments the vote but has not altered projected Coalition seat outcomes under current preference flows. The November 28 election timeline and absence of major late-breaking events have reinforced trader consensus around a Coalition majority, while minor parties and independents remain priced as long shots absent shifts in primary fragmentation or preference dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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