Current trader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty in Eastern and Central Pacific tropical cyclone development through late August 2026, with closely matched probabilities around 48-53.5% across mid-to-late month windows and for no August hurricane. An active El Niño pattern, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, and reduced wind shear provide favorable conditions for organization, as highlighted by NOAA’s above-normal seasonal outlook. A potential tropical cyclone near Hawaii, monitored since August 12 at tropical storm intensity, represents the most immediate candidate for intensification, though National Hurricane Center model guidance shows variability in timing and strengthening potential. Historical analogs indicate peak formation often clusters late in the month, yet divergent forecast runs on steering and moisture leave the exact window unresolved until updated model cycles and satellite observations clarify development thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhen will the next hurricane form in the Pacific?
When will the next hurricane form in the Pacific?
August 17 to August 21, 2026 48%
August 13 to August 16, 2026 0
August 22 to August 26, 2026 0
August 27 to August 31, 2026 0
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 17, 2026
August 13 to August 16, 2026
48%
August 17 to August 21, 2026
48%
August 22 to August 26, 2026
-
August 27 to August 31, 2026
52%
No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026
-
August 17 to August 21, 2026 48%
August 13 to August 16, 2026 0
August 22 to August 26, 2026 0
August 27 to August 31, 2026 0
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 17, 2026
August 13 to August 16, 2026
$40 Обс.
48%
August 17 to August 21, 2026
$20 Обс.
48%
August 22 to August 26, 2026
$40 Обс.
-
August 27 to August 31, 2026
$40 Обс.
52%
No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026
$67 Обс.
-
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpacCurrent trader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty in Eastern and Central Pacific tropical cyclone development through late August 2026, with closely matched probabilities around 48-53.5% across mid-to-late month windows and for no August hurricane. An active El Niño pattern, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, and reduced wind shear provide favorable conditions for organization, as highlighted by NOAA’s above-normal seasonal outlook. A potential tropical cyclone near Hawaii, monitored since August 12 at tropical storm intensity, represents the most immediate candidate for intensification, though National Hurricane Center model guidance shows variability in timing and strengthening potential. Historical analogs indicate peak formation often clusters late in the month, yet divergent forecast runs on steering and moisture leave the exact window unresolved until updated model cycles and satellite observations clarify development thresholds.
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
Обсяг
$207Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpacCurrent trader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty in Eastern and Central Pacific tropical cyclone development through late August 2026, with closely matched probabilities around 48-53.5% across mid-to-late month windows and for no August hurricane. An active El Niño pattern, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, and reduced wind shear provide favorable conditions for organization, as highlighted by NOAA’s above-normal seasonal outlook. A potential tropical cyclone near Hawaii, monitored since August 12 at tropical storm intensity, represents the most immediate candidate for intensification, though National Hurricane Center model guidance shows variability in timing and strengthening potential. Historical analogs indicate peak formation often clusters late in the month, yet divergent forecast runs on steering and moisture leave the exact window unresolved until updated model cycles and satellite observations clarify development thresholds.
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
Обсяг
$207Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Current trader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty in Eastern and Central Pacific tropical cyclone development through late August 2026, with closely matched probabilities around 48-53.5% across mid-to-late month windows and for no August hurricane. An active El Niño pattern, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, and reduced wind shear provide favorable conditions for organization, as highlighted by NOAA’s above-normal seasonal outlook. A potential tropical cyclone near Hawaii, monitored since August 12 at tropical storm intensity, represents the most immediate candidate for intensification, though National Hurricane Center model guidance shows variability in timing and strengthening potential. Historical analogs indicate peak formation often clusters late in the month, yet divergent forecast runs on steering and moisture leave the exact window unresolved until updated model cycles and satellite observations clarify development thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання