Trader consensus around a 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer minimum reflects NSIDC August data placing 2026 extent at 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest on record, after early-summer trajectories briefly approached 2012 levels. Cooler high-latitude temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed melt through August, consistent with the post-2007 plateau in September minima despite the long-term 12 percent per decade decline. Recent observational trends from NSIDC and Copernicus, along with historical analogs, support this range over lower or higher bins. The official minimum, typically declared mid-September once daily extent bottoms out, will resolve the market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 91.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 3.0%
<4m sq km 1.6%
4.0-4.2m sq km 1.1%
$78,958 Обс.
$78,958 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
2%
4.0-4.2m sq km
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
3%
4.4-4.6m sq km
91%
4.6-4.8m sq km
1%
4.8-5m sq km
1%
5m+ sq km
<1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 91.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 3.0%
<4m sq km 1.6%
4.0-4.2m sq km 1.1%
$78,958 Обс.
$78,958 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$33,595 Обс.
2%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$7,498 Обс.
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,817 Обс.
3%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$4,286 Обс.
91%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$10,293 Обс.
1%
4.8-5m sq km
$4,370 Обс.
1%
5m+ sq km
$15,098 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus around a 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer minimum reflects NSIDC August data placing 2026 extent at 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest on record, after early-summer trajectories briefly approached 2012 levels. Cooler high-latitude temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed melt through August, consistent with the post-2007 plateau in September minima despite the long-term 12 percent per decade decline. Recent observational trends from NSIDC and Copernicus, along with historical analogs, support this range over lower or higher bins. The official minimum, typically declared mid-September once daily extent bottoms out, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$78,958Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus around a 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer minimum reflects NSIDC August data placing 2026 extent at 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest on record, after early-summer trajectories briefly approached 2012 levels. Cooler high-latitude temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed melt through August, consistent with the post-2007 plateau in September minima despite the long-term 12 percent per decade decline. Recent observational trends from NSIDC and Copernicus, along with historical analogs, support this range over lower or higher bins. The official minimum, typically declared mid-September once daily extent bottoms out, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$78,958Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus around a 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer minimum reflects NSIDC August data placing 2026 extent at 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest on record, after early-summer trajectories briefly approached 2012 levels. Cooler high-latitude temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed melt through August, consistent with the post-2007 plateau in September minima despite the long-term 12 percent per decade decline. Recent observational trends from NSIDC and Copernicus, along with historical analogs, support this range over lower or higher bins. The official minimum, typically declared mid-September once daily extent bottoms out, will resolve the market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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