Strong El Niño conditions strengthening through August 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures near +1.8°C, are the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment for September U.S. tornado counts. This pattern historically suppresses activity by enhancing vertical wind shear, strengthening the subtropical jet, and limiting Gulf moisture transport, often favoring fewer tornadoes than during neutral or La Niña years. Recent climatology places the September average near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020), with notable variability from tropical cyclone remnants. The closely matched market-implied odds across bins around this baseline reflect uncertainty in how intensely the El Niño signal will couple with fall transition patterns, including potential model spread in CPC outlooks and any late-season convective outbreaks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 47%
25 - 49 46%
Under 25 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
42%
25 - 49
46%
50 - 74
52%
75 - 124
47%
125 or more
38%
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 47%
25 - 49 46%
Under 25 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$0 Обс.
42%
25 - 49
$0 Обс.
46%
50 - 74
$0 Обс.
52%
75 - 124
$0 Обс.
47%
125 or more
$0 Обс.
38%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions strengthening through August 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures near +1.8°C, are the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment for September U.S. tornado counts. This pattern historically suppresses activity by enhancing vertical wind shear, strengthening the subtropical jet, and limiting Gulf moisture transport, often favoring fewer tornadoes than during neutral or La Niña years. Recent climatology places the September average near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020), with notable variability from tropical cyclone remnants. The closely matched market-implied odds across bins around this baseline reflect uncertainty in how intensely the El Niño signal will couple with fall transition patterns, including potential model spread in CPC outlooks and any late-season convective outbreaks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions strengthening through August 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures near +1.8°C, are the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment for September U.S. tornado counts. This pattern historically suppresses activity by enhancing vertical wind shear, strengthening the subtropical jet, and limiting Gulf moisture transport, often favoring fewer tornadoes than during neutral or La Niña years. Recent climatology places the September average near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020), with notable variability from tropical cyclone remnants. The closely matched market-implied odds across bins around this baseline reflect uncertainty in how intensely the El Niño signal will couple with fall transition patterns, including potential model spread in CPC outlooks and any late-season convective outbreaks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions strengthening through August 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures near +1.8°C, are the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment for September U.S. tornado counts. This pattern historically suppresses activity by enhancing vertical wind shear, strengthening the subtropical jet, and limiting Gulf moisture transport, often favoring fewer tornadoes than during neutral or La Niña years. Recent climatology places the September average near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020), with notable variability from tropical cyclone remnants. The closely matched market-implied odds across bins around this baseline reflect uncertainty in how intensely the El Niño signal will couple with fall transition patterns, including potential model spread in CPC outlooks and any late-season convective outbreaks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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