A developing very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already reaching 1.8–2.6 °C and forecasts exceeding prior records, serves as the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperature anomalies toward the 1.3–1.5 °C range. This event, confirmed by NOAA and other agencies, releases stored ocean heat with a typical 1–3 month lag, layering atop the long-term anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Trader-implied odds cluster near 1.30–1.49 °C because model spreads and historical analogs show variable September impacts depending on exact peak timing, Indian Ocean Dipole evolution, and shorter-term variability. Official monthly releases from agencies such as NASA GISS or Berkeley Earth will resolve the market once full observational data are available.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
<1.30ºC 50%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
24%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
<1.30ºC 50%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Обс.
24%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already reaching 1.8–2.6 °C and forecasts exceeding prior records, serves as the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperature anomalies toward the 1.3–1.5 °C range. This event, confirmed by NOAA and other agencies, releases stored ocean heat with a typical 1–3 month lag, layering atop the long-term anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Trader-implied odds cluster near 1.30–1.49 °C because model spreads and historical analogs show variable September impacts depending on exact peak timing, Indian Ocean Dipole evolution, and shorter-term variability. Official monthly releases from agencies such as NASA GISS or Berkeley Earth will resolve the market once full observational data are available.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already reaching 1.8–2.6 °C and forecasts exceeding prior records, serves as the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperature anomalies toward the 1.3–1.5 °C range. This event, confirmed by NOAA and other agencies, releases stored ocean heat with a typical 1–3 month lag, layering atop the long-term anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Trader-implied odds cluster near 1.30–1.49 °C because model spreads and historical analogs show variable September impacts depending on exact peak timing, Indian Ocean Dipole evolution, and shorter-term variability. Official monthly releases from agencies such as NASA GISS or Berkeley Earth will resolve the market once full observational data are available.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A developing very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already reaching 1.8–2.6 °C and forecasts exceeding prior records, serves as the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperature anomalies toward the 1.3–1.5 °C range. This event, confirmed by NOAA and other agencies, releases stored ocean heat with a typical 1–3 month lag, layering atop the long-term anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Trader-implied odds cluster near 1.30–1.49 °C because model spreads and historical analogs show variable September impacts depending on exact peak timing, Indian Ocean Dipole evolution, and shorter-term variability. Official monthly releases from agencies such as NASA GISS or Berkeley Earth will resolve the market once full observational data are available.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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