Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies confirm Tropical Storm Saudel reached very strong typhoon intensity, with peak maximum sustained winds near 90-110 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa during its passage over the Philippine Sea and East China Sea in late August 2026. Satellite imagery, reconnaissance data, and model consensus tracked rapid intensification to Category 3-4 equivalent strength before landfall in Zhejiang Province, driving the 99.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Weakening over land and cooler waters has since reduced it to a tropical depression. Re-intensification over the mainland remains unlikely given current steering patterns and environmental conditions, though any unexpected redevelopment before dissipation could shift resolution criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%
Violent Typhoon <1%
Tropical Storm <1%
Severe Tropical Storm <1%
$10,059 Обс.
$10,059 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
<1%
Typhoon
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon
99%
Violent Typhoon
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%
Violent Typhoon <1%
Tropical Storm <1%
Severe Tropical Storm <1%
$10,059 Обс.
$10,059 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$663 Обс.
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$606 Обс.
<1%
Typhoon
$1,570 Обс.
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon
$3,267 Обс.
99%
Violent Typhoon
$3,953 Обс.
<1%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies confirm Tropical Storm Saudel reached very strong typhoon intensity, with peak maximum sustained winds near 90-110 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa during its passage over the Philippine Sea and East China Sea in late August 2026. Satellite imagery, reconnaissance data, and model consensus tracked rapid intensification to Category 3-4 equivalent strength before landfall in Zhejiang Province, driving the 99.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Weakening over land and cooler waters has since reduced it to a tropical depression. Re-intensification over the mainland remains unlikely given current steering patterns and environmental conditions, though any unexpected redevelopment before dissipation could shift resolution criteria.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,059Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies confirm Tropical Storm Saudel reached very strong typhoon intensity, with peak maximum sustained winds near 90-110 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa during its passage over the Philippine Sea and East China Sea in late August 2026. Satellite imagery, reconnaissance data, and model consensus tracked rapid intensification to Category 3-4 equivalent strength before landfall in Zhejiang Province, driving the 99.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Weakening over land and cooler waters has since reduced it to a tropical depression. Re-intensification over the mainland remains unlikely given current steering patterns and environmental conditions, though any unexpected redevelopment before dissipation could shift resolution criteria.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Обсяг
$10,059Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies confirm Tropical Storm Saudel reached very strong typhoon intensity, with peak maximum sustained winds near 90-110 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa during its passage over the Philippine Sea and East China Sea in late August 2026. Satellite imagery, reconnaissance data, and model consensus tracked rapid intensification to Category 3-4 equivalent strength before landfall in Zhejiang Province, driving the 99.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Weakening over land and cooler waters has since reduced it to a tropical depression. Re-intensification over the mainland remains unlikely given current steering patterns and environmental conditions, though any unexpected redevelopment before dissipation could shift resolution criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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