Trader consensus currently centers on a 17°C high for Wellington on August 30, carrying 52% implied probability, as short-range ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating high-pressure ridge bringing lighter northerly flows and daytime maxima near seasonal norms for late winter. Recent runs show tight clustering around 16–18°C, with 18°C at 32.5% reflecting minor warm-air advection potential if the ridge strengthens slightly. Key variables include cloud cover and wind shifts that could suppress or elevate readings by 1–2°C, consistent with historical variability in the region where August maxima average near 13–15°C but have reached 17°C in analogous setups. Updated MetService guidance and next model cycles over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
17°C 52%
18°C 32%
16°C 14%
19°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
14%
17°C
52%
18°C
32%
19°C
4%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 52%
18°C 32%
16°C 14%
19°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
11°C or below
$56 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$56 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$90 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$376 Обс.
1%
15°C
$197 Обс.
3%
16°C
$3,253 Обс.
14%
17°C
$624 Обс.
52%
18°C
$1,186 Обс.
32%
19°C
$69 Обс.
4%
20°C
$105 Обс.
<1%
21°C or higher
$50 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus currently centers on a 17°C high for Wellington on August 30, carrying 52% implied probability, as short-range ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating high-pressure ridge bringing lighter northerly flows and daytime maxima near seasonal norms for late winter. Recent runs show tight clustering around 16–18°C, with 18°C at 32.5% reflecting minor warm-air advection potential if the ridge strengthens slightly. Key variables include cloud cover and wind shifts that could suppress or elevate readings by 1–2°C, consistent with historical variability in the region where August maxima average near 13–15°C but have reached 17°C in analogous setups. Updated MetService guidance and next model cycles over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,062Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus currently centers on a 17°C high for Wellington on August 30, carrying 52% implied probability, as short-range ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating high-pressure ridge bringing lighter northerly flows and daytime maxima near seasonal norms for late winter. Recent runs show tight clustering around 16–18°C, with 18°C at 32.5% reflecting minor warm-air advection potential if the ridge strengthens slightly. Key variables include cloud cover and wind shifts that could suppress or elevate readings by 1–2°C, consistent with historical variability in the region where August maxima average near 13–15°C but have reached 17°C in analogous setups. Updated MetService guidance and next model cycles over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,062Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus currently centers on a 17°C high for Wellington on August 30, carrying 52% implied probability, as short-range ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating high-pressure ridge bringing lighter northerly flows and daytime maxima near seasonal norms for late winter. Recent runs show tight clustering around 16–18°C, with 18°C at 32.5% reflecting minor warm-air advection potential if the ridge strengthens slightly. Key variables include cloud cover and wind shifts that could suppress or elevate readings by 1–2°C, consistent with historical variability in the region where August maxima average near 13–15°C but have reached 17°C in analogous setups. Updated MetService guidance and next model cycles over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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