**Forecast consensus from MetService, Met Office, and other models centers on a daytime high of 14°C for Wellington on August 29, with 15°C a close alternative.** This positioning reflects a classic late-winter pattern: a front clearing overnight after strong northerlies and rain on the 28th, followed by building high pressure, mostly sunny skies, and breezy northwest winds. These conditions promote moderate daytime warming under clear solar insolation while the cool maritime air mass keeps temperatures from rising much higher. Northwesterlies often produce localized warming via downslope effects across the region, yet the overall cool seasonal baseline and recent frontal passage limit upside potential. Official guidance and ensemble model runs show little spread around 13–15°C, aligning with the historical average high near 13–14°C for the date. Low precipitation chances and light winds overnight further support efficient radiational cooling before the daytime peak. Traders have priced the narrow 14–15°C band heavily because new forecast updates through the 28th have converged on this range, with minimal model disagreement expected before resolution. Any shift would require an unexpected change in cloud cover or wind strength that alters the energy balance.