**Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a maximum temperature of 14–16°C for Wellington on August 28, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes of 15°C (63%) and 16°C (21%).** Wellington's winter (August) temperatures are typically moderated by its coastal location and variable winds, with historical averages near 12–13°C highs; current model runs show mild northerly or variable flows preventing significant cooling or warming. Recent developments include a passing trough and associated showers earlier in the week, followed by stabilizing high pressure that has kept daytime maxima in the 13–15°C range, with no strong cold outbreak or warm advection expected to shift the peak. Cloud cover and light precipitation on the 28th are likely to cap radiative heating, favoring the 14–16°C band over extremes. Traders appear to weight the consensus from official guidance (MetService) and ensemble spreads, which show limited upside potential beyond 16°C given the season and synoptic setup, while downside risk below 14°C remains low absent a surprise southerly change. New model runs and updated MetService briefings ahead of the date represent the main near-term catalysts that could refine these implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
15°C 64%
16°C 22%
14°C 11%
17°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
11%
15°C
64%
16°C
22%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 64%
16°C 22%
14°C 11%
17°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
$157 Обс.
1%
11°C
$110 Обс.
1%
12°C
$11 Обс.
1%
13°C
$128 Обс.
3%
14°C
$661 Обс.
11%
15°C
$196 Обс.
64%
16°C
$39 Обс.
22%
17°C
$118 Обс.
4%
18°C
$89 Обс.
2%
19°C
$59 Обс.
1%
20°C or higher
$155 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a maximum temperature of 14–16°C for Wellington on August 28, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes of 15°C (63%) and 16°C (21%).**
Wellington's winter (August) temperatures are typically moderated by its coastal location and variable winds, with historical averages near 12–13°C highs; current model runs show mild northerly or variable flows preventing significant cooling or warming. Recent developments include a passing trough and associated showers earlier in the week, followed by stabilizing high pressure that has kept daytime maxima in the 13–15°C range, with no strong cold outbreak or warm advection expected to shift the peak. Cloud cover and light precipitation on the 28th are likely to cap radiative heating, favoring the 14–16°C band over extremes. Traders appear to weight the consensus from official guidance (MetService) and ensemble spreads, which show limited upside potential beyond 16°C given the season and synoptic setup, while downside risk below 14°C remains low absent a surprise southerly change. New model runs and updated MetService briefings ahead of the date represent the main near-term catalysts that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,561Дата завершення
Aug 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a maximum temperature of 14–16°C for Wellington on August 28, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes of 15°C (63%) and 16°C (21%).**
Wellington's winter (August) temperatures are typically moderated by its coastal location and variable winds, with historical averages near 12–13°C highs; current model runs show mild northerly or variable flows preventing significant cooling or warming. Recent developments include a passing trough and associated showers earlier in the week, followed by stabilizing high pressure that has kept daytime maxima in the 13–15°C range, with no strong cold outbreak or warm advection expected to shift the peak. Cloud cover and light precipitation on the 28th are likely to cap radiative heating, favoring the 14–16°C band over extremes. Traders appear to weight the consensus from official guidance (MetService) and ensemble spreads, which show limited upside potential beyond 16°C given the season and synoptic setup, while downside risk below 14°C remains low absent a surprise southerly change. New model runs and updated MetService briefings ahead of the date represent the main near-term catalysts that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,561Дата завершення
Aug 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a maximum temperature of 14–16°C for Wellington on August 28, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes of 15°C (63%) and 16°C (21%).** Wellington's winter (August) temperatures are typically moderated by its coastal location and variable winds, with historical averages near 12–13°C highs; current model runs show mild northerly or variable flows preventing significant cooling or warming. Recent developments include a passing trough and associated showers earlier in the week, followed by stabilizing high pressure that has kept daytime maxima in the 13–15°C range, with no strong cold outbreak or warm advection expected to shift the peak. Cloud cover and light precipitation on the 28th are likely to cap radiative heating, favoring the 14–16°C band over extremes. Traders appear to weight the consensus from official guidance (MetService) and ensemble spreads, which show limited upside potential beyond 16°C given the season and synoptic setup, while downside risk below 14°C remains low absent a surprise southerly change. New model runs and updated MetService briefings ahead of the date represent the main near-term catalysts that could refine these implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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