**Latest National Weather Service and GFS model guidance points to a daily high near 99–101°F in Dallas on September 14 under clear skies and persistent southerly flow.** This setup, with afternoon heat indices reaching 105°F, aligns closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 98–99°F and 100–101°F outcomes. A strong surface high and lack of moisture or frontal passage keep conditions stable, preventing significant cooling or convective disruption. While September climatology shows an average high around 88°F, the current warm anomaly—driven by above-normal 850 mb temperatures and downslope flow—supports readings several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be pricing in limited upside risk from model spread, as ensemble guidance shows tight clustering with low probability of exceeding 102°F or dropping below 98°F before the 24-hour observation window closes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Dallas on September 14?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 14?
98-99°F 57%
100-101°F 34%
102-103°F 6%
96-97°F 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
5%
98-99°F
57%
100-101°F
34%
102-103°F
6%
104-105°F
2%
106-107°F
1%
108-109°F
1%
110°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 57%
100-101°F 34%
102-103°F 6%
96-97°F 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
91°F or below
$498 Обс.
<1%
92-93°F
$586 Обс.
<1%
94-95°F
$478 Обс.
2%
96-97°F
$623 Обс.
5%
98-99°F
$2,266 Обс.
57%
100-101°F
$2,726 Обс.
34%
102-103°F
$437 Обс.
6%
104-105°F
$476 Обс.
2%
106-107°F
$920 Обс.
1%
108-109°F
$703 Обс.
1%
110°F or higher
$233 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest National Weather Service and GFS model guidance points to a daily high near 99–101°F in Dallas on September 14 under clear skies and persistent southerly flow.** This setup, with afternoon heat indices reaching 105°F, aligns closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 98–99°F and 100–101°F outcomes. A strong surface high and lack of moisture or frontal passage keep conditions stable, preventing significant cooling or convective disruption. While September climatology shows an average high around 88°F, the current warm anomaly—driven by above-normal 850 mb temperatures and downslope flow—supports readings several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be pricing in limited upside risk from model spread, as ensemble guidance shows tight clustering with low probability of exceeding 102°F or dropping below 98°F before the 24-hour observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$9,946Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest National Weather Service and GFS model guidance points to a daily high near 99–101°F in Dallas on September 14 under clear skies and persistent southerly flow.** This setup, with afternoon heat indices reaching 105°F, aligns closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 98–99°F and 100–101°F outcomes. A strong surface high and lack of moisture or frontal passage keep conditions stable, preventing significant cooling or convective disruption. While September climatology shows an average high around 88°F, the current warm anomaly—driven by above-normal 850 mb temperatures and downslope flow—supports readings several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be pricing in limited upside risk from model spread, as ensemble guidance shows tight clustering with low probability of exceeding 102°F or dropping below 98°F before the 24-hour observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$9,946Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Latest National Weather Service and GFS model guidance points to a daily high near 99–101°F in Dallas on September 14 under clear skies and persistent southerly flow.** This setup, with afternoon heat indices reaching 105°F, aligns closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 98–99°F and 100–101°F outcomes. A strong surface high and lack of moisture or frontal passage keep conditions stable, preventing significant cooling or convective disruption. While September climatology shows an average high around 88°F, the current warm anomaly—driven by above-normal 850 mb temperatures and downslope flow—supports readings several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be pricing in limited upside risk from model spread, as ensemble guidance shows tight clustering with low probability of exceeding 102°F or dropping below 98°F before the 24-hour observation window closes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання