Apple’s established annual iPhone cadence and multiple corroborated supplier reports drive the near-certain 98.8% market-implied odds for a 2026 release of the iPhone 18 series. Industry analysts and component makers such as Pegatron have confirmed that Apple will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra at a September 9, 2026 event, maintaining the core hardware refresh cycle despite a strategic shift that moves only the base iPhone 18 and select lower-tier models to early 2027. Traders weigh Apple’s multi-year track record of on-time flagship launches, recent event announcements, and supply-chain validation far more heavily than the staggered schedule. While supply shortages, regulatory hurdles in major markets, or unforeseen production setbacks could still push even the Pro models, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple’s historical execution and current preparations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
99% шанс
$175,236 Обс.
$175,236 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
99% шанс
$175,236 Обс.
$175,236 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone cadence and multiple corroborated supplier reports drive the near-certain 98.8% market-implied odds for a 2026 release of the iPhone 18 series. Industry analysts and component makers such as Pegatron have confirmed that Apple will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra at a September 9, 2026 event, maintaining the core hardware refresh cycle despite a strategic shift that moves only the base iPhone 18 and select lower-tier models to early 2027. Traders weigh Apple’s multi-year track record of on-time flagship launches, recent event announcements, and supply-chain validation far more heavily than the staggered schedule. While supply shortages, regulatory hurdles in major markets, or unforeseen production setbacks could still push even the Pro models, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple’s historical execution and current preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$175,236Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone cadence and multiple corroborated supplier reports drive the near-certain 98.8% market-implied odds for a 2026 release of the iPhone 18 series. Industry analysts and component makers such as Pegatron have confirmed that Apple will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra at a September 9, 2026 event, maintaining the core hardware refresh cycle despite a strategic shift that moves only the base iPhone 18 and select lower-tier models to early 2027. Traders weigh Apple’s multi-year track record of on-time flagship launches, recent event announcements, and supply-chain validation far more heavily than the staggered schedule. While supply shortages, regulatory hurdles in major markets, or unforeseen production setbacks could still push even the Pro models, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple’s historical execution and current preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$175,236Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual iPhone cadence and multiple corroborated supplier reports drive the near-certain 98.8% market-implied odds for a 2026 release of the iPhone 18 series. Industry analysts and component makers such as Pegatron have confirmed that Apple will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra at a September 9, 2026 event, maintaining the core hardware refresh cycle despite a strategic shift that moves only the base iPhone 18 and select lower-tier models to early 2027. Traders weigh Apple’s multi-year track record of on-time flagship launches, recent event announcements, and supply-chain validation far more heavily than the staggered schedule. While supply shortages, regulatory hurdles in major markets, or unforeseen production setbacks could still push even the Pro models, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple’s historical execution and current preparations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання