Apple's long-standing annual September release cadence for new iPhone models drives the overwhelming 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Historical patterns show consistent timing despite occasional supply-chain or component delays, with no credible reports of major setbacks emerging in recent months. Traders weigh this precedent heavily against low-probability risks such as unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets or production issues with advanced chips. Key upcoming catalysts include Apple's typical fall product event and any supply-chain updates that could surface closer to launch.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
99% шанс
$175,240 Обс.
$175,240 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
99% шанс
$175,240 Обс.
$175,240 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual September release cadence for new iPhone models drives the overwhelming 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Historical patterns show consistent timing despite occasional supply-chain or component delays, with no credible reports of major setbacks emerging in recent months. Traders weigh this precedent heavily against low-probability risks such as unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets or production issues with advanced chips. Key upcoming catalysts include Apple's typical fall product event and any supply-chain updates that could surface closer to launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$175,240Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual September release cadence for new iPhone models drives the overwhelming 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Historical patterns show consistent timing despite occasional supply-chain or component delays, with no credible reports of major setbacks emerging in recent months. Traders weigh this precedent heavily against low-probability risks such as unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets or production issues with advanced chips. Key upcoming catalysts include Apple's typical fall product event and any supply-chain updates that could surface closer to launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$175,240Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing annual September release cadence for new iPhone models drives the overwhelming 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Historical patterns show consistent timing despite occasional supply-chain or component delays, with no credible reports of major setbacks emerging in recent months. Traders weigh this precedent heavily against low-probability risks such as unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets or production issues with advanced chips. Key upcoming catalysts include Apple's typical fall product event and any supply-chain updates that could surface closer to launch.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання