Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 81.5% chance of a global surface air temperature anomaly between 1.15–1.24ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026, driven primarily by the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 10 bulletin reporting March 2026 at 1.48ºC—the fourth-warmest March on record in ERA5 reanalysis—coupled with NOAA's April 9 ENSO update confirming neutral conditions through April–June (80% probability) before a likely El Niño emergence. Persistent above-average sea surface temperatures and weak westerly anomalies in early April data support this moderation from March peaks, aligning with historical neutral ENSO Aprils averaging lower anomalies amid ongoing anthropogenic warming trends. Full April ERA5 data expected early May could shift odds, as reanalysis incorporates mid-month observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 45%
1.20–1.24ºC 36%
1.25–1.29ºC 13%
1.10–1.14ºC 7%
$135,739 KL.
$135,739 KL.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
7%
1.15–1.19ºC
45%
1.20–1.24ºC
36%
1.25–1.29ºC
13%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.15–1.19ºC 45%
1.20–1.24ºC 36%
1.25–1.29ºC 13%
1.10–1.14ºC 7%
$135,739 KL.
$135,739 KL.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$30,152 KL.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,508 KL.
7%
1.15–1.19ºC
$16,080 KL.
45%
1.20–1.24ºC
$19,355 KL.
36%
1.25–1.29ºC
$29,392 KL.
13%
>1.29ºC
$16,253 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 81.5% chance of a global surface air temperature anomaly between 1.15–1.24ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026, driven primarily by the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 10 bulletin reporting March 2026 at 1.48ºC—the fourth-warmest March on record in ERA5 reanalysis—coupled with NOAA's April 9 ENSO update confirming neutral conditions through April–June (80% probability) before a likely El Niño emergence. Persistent above-average sea surface temperatures and weak westerly anomalies in early April data support this moderation from March peaks, aligning with historical neutral ENSO Aprils averaging lower anomalies amid ongoing anthropogenic warming trends. Full April ERA5 data expected early May could shift odds, as reanalysis incorporates mid-month observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$135,739Ngày kết thúc
May 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 81.5% chance of a global surface air temperature anomaly between 1.15–1.24ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026, driven primarily by the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 10 bulletin reporting March 2026 at 1.48ºC—the fourth-warmest March on record in ERA5 reanalysis—coupled with NOAA's April 9 ENSO update confirming neutral conditions through April–June (80% probability) before a likely El Niño emergence. Persistent above-average sea surface temperatures and weak westerly anomalies in early April data support this moderation from March peaks, aligning with historical neutral ENSO Aprils averaging lower anomalies amid ongoing anthropogenic warming trends. Full April ERA5 data expected early May could shift odds, as reanalysis incorporates mid-month observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$135,739Ngày kết thúc
May 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 81.5% chance of a global surface air temperature anomaly between 1.15–1.24ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026, driven primarily by the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 10 bulletin reporting March 2026 at 1.48ºC—the fourth-warmest March on record in ERA5 reanalysis—coupled with NOAA's April 9 ENSO update confirming neutral conditions through April–June (80% probability) before a likely El Niño emergence. Persistent above-average sea surface temperatures and weak westerly anomalies in early April data support this moderation from March peaks, aligning with historical neutral ENSO Aprils averaging lower anomalies amid ongoing anthropogenic warming trends. Full April ERA5 data expected early May could shift odds, as reanalysis incorporates mid-month observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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