Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's strong performance in the June 2, 2026, California primary, where he secured over 57 percent of the vote and advanced to the general election, reinforces trader consensus on the Democratic Party's position in CA-10. The district's deep Democratic lean, reflected in its East Bay location within the San Francisco Bay Area and a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating around D+18, creates substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee. Historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers capable of narrowing the margin further support the current implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, incumbent health issue, or significant national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-10 House Election Winner
CA-10 House Election Winner
$18,454 KL.
$18,454 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$18,454 KL.
$18,454 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,750 KL.
95%
Republican Party
$6,705 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's strong performance in the June 2, 2026, California primary, where he secured over 57 percent of the vote and advanced to the general election, reinforces trader consensus on the Democratic Party's position in CA-10. The district's deep Democratic lean, reflected in its East Bay location within the San Francisco Bay Area and a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating around D+18, creates substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee. Historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers capable of narrowing the margin further support the current implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, incumbent health issue, or significant national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$18,454Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's strong performance in the June 2, 2026, California primary, where he secured over 57 percent of the vote and advanced to the general election, reinforces trader consensus on the Democratic Party's position in CA-10. The district's deep Democratic lean, reflected in its East Bay location within the San Francisco Bay Area and a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating around D+18, creates substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee. Historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers capable of narrowing the margin further support the current implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, incumbent health issue, or significant national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$18,454Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's strong performance in the June 2, 2026, California primary, where he secured over 57 percent of the vote and advanced to the general election, reinforces trader consensus on the Democratic Party's position in CA-10. The district's deep Democratic lean, reflected in its East Bay location within the San Francisco Bay Area and a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating around D+18, creates substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee. Historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers capable of narrowing the margin further support the current implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, incumbent health issue, or significant national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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