Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings identify Iowa, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio as the Senate contests with the tightest projected margins heading into November, reflecting open seats, retiring incumbents, and nominees who have kept races within low single digits. Iowa features an open Republican-held seat where Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek remain nearly tied. Texas pits Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico in an unusually competitive environment for the state. Michigan’s open Democratic seat pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, while Ohio’s special election matches Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown. These dynamics, combined with national generic ballot trends and candidate-specific factors such as fundraising and primary outcomes, have concentrated trader attention on which race ultimately produces the smallest victory margin. Late shifts in turnout, endorsements, or economic conditions could further narrow or widen specific contests.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 14%
Iowa 13.3%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.7%
$45,323 KL.
$45,323 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
14%
Iowa
13%
Michigan
11%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Alaska
8%
Maine
8%
Nebraska
8%
Florida (Special)
4%
New Hampshire
4%
Montana
2%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 14%
Iowa 13.3%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.7%
$45,323 KL.
$45,323 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$2,351 KL.
14%
Iowa
$3,298 KL.
13%
Michigan
$3,525 KL.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$9,015 KL.
10%
Alaska
$8,357 KL.
8%
Maine
$1,995 KL.
8%
Nebraska
$3,609 KL.
8%
Florida (Special)
$410 KL.
4%
New Hampshire
$806 KL.
4%
Montana
$1,653 KL.
2%
Virginia
$5,076 KL.
2%
North Carolina
$1,557 KL.
2%
Georgia
$824 KL.
2%
New Mexico
$160 KL.
2%
Minnesota
$1,569 KL.
1%
Colorado
$1,117 KL.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings identify Iowa, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio as the Senate contests with the tightest projected margins heading into November, reflecting open seats, retiring incumbents, and nominees who have kept races within low single digits. Iowa features an open Republican-held seat where Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek remain nearly tied. Texas pits Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico in an unusually competitive environment for the state. Michigan’s open Democratic seat pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, while Ohio’s special election matches Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown. These dynamics, combined with national generic ballot trends and candidate-specific factors such as fundraising and primary outcomes, have concentrated trader attention on which race ultimately produces the smallest victory margin. Late shifts in turnout, endorsements, or economic conditions could further narrow or widen specific contests.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$45,323Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings identify Iowa, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio as the Senate contests with the tightest projected margins heading into November, reflecting open seats, retiring incumbents, and nominees who have kept races within low single digits. Iowa features an open Republican-held seat where Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek remain nearly tied. Texas pits Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico in an unusually competitive environment for the state. Michigan’s open Democratic seat pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, while Ohio’s special election matches Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown. These dynamics, combined with national generic ballot trends and candidate-specific factors such as fundraising and primary outcomes, have concentrated trader attention on which race ultimately produces the smallest victory margin. Late shifts in turnout, endorsements, or economic conditions could further narrow or widen specific contests.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$45,323Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings identify Iowa, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio as the Senate contests with the tightest projected margins heading into November, reflecting open seats, retiring incumbents, and nominees who have kept races within low single digits. Iowa features an open Republican-held seat where Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek remain nearly tied. Texas pits Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico in an unusually competitive environment for the state. Michigan’s open Democratic seat pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, while Ohio’s special election matches Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown. These dynamics, combined with national generic ballot trends and candidate-specific factors such as fundraising and primary outcomes, have concentrated trader attention on which race ultimately produces the smallest victory margin. Late shifts in turnout, endorsements, or economic conditions could further narrow or widen specific contests.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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