Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings from groups like Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report identify Alaska, Maine, and Texas as the most competitive 2026 Senate contests, each rated toss-up or lean following candidate announcements and primaries. These races feature strong nominees in states with narrow partisan leans, where candidate quality, fundraising edges, and turnout patterns among key voting blocs can determine narrow margins. Recent updates, including improved Democratic positioning in Alaska after nominee selection and heightened interest in Texas following primary results, have kept probabilities clustered. Iowa and the Ohio special election trail as next-tier battlegrounds due to similar structural factors. Late-cycle developments such as debates, national economic signals, or shifts in early voting could widen gaps among these outcomes before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Maine 17%
Alaska 16%
Texas 16%
Iowa 10.6%
$23,383 KL.
$23,383 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Maine
17%
Alaska
16%
Texas
16%
Iowa
11%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Michigan
7%
Nebraska
5%
New Hampshire
4%
Florida (Special)
4%
North Carolina
3%
New Mexico
3%
Colorado
3%
Georgia
3%
Virginia
2%
Montana
1%
Minnesota
1%
Maine 17%
Alaska 16%
Texas 16%
Iowa 10.6%
$23,383 KL.
$23,383 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Maine
$460 KL.
17%
Alaska
$4,928 KL.
16%
Texas
$367 KL.
16%
Iowa
$2,420 KL.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$3,527 KL.
10%
Michigan
$1,653 KL.
7%
Nebraska
$256 KL.
5%
New Hampshire
$480 KL.
4%
Florida (Special)
$196 KL.
4%
North Carolina
$541 KL.
3%
New Mexico
$155 KL.
3%
Colorado
$657 KL.
3%
Georgia
$747 KL.
3%
Virginia
$5,017 KL.
2%
Montana
$526 KL.
1%
Minnesota
$1,451 KL.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings from groups like Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report identify Alaska, Maine, and Texas as the most competitive 2026 Senate contests, each rated toss-up or lean following candidate announcements and primaries. These races feature strong nominees in states with narrow partisan leans, where candidate quality, fundraising edges, and turnout patterns among key voting blocs can determine narrow margins. Recent updates, including improved Democratic positioning in Alaska after nominee selection and heightened interest in Texas following primary results, have kept probabilities clustered. Iowa and the Ohio special election trail as next-tier battlegrounds due to similar structural factors. Late-cycle developments such as debates, national economic signals, or shifts in early voting could widen gaps among these outcomes before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$23,383Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings from groups like Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report identify Alaska, Maine, and Texas as the most competitive 2026 Senate contests, each rated toss-up or lean following candidate announcements and primaries. These races feature strong nominees in states with narrow partisan leans, where candidate quality, fundraising edges, and turnout patterns among key voting blocs can determine narrow margins. Recent updates, including improved Democratic positioning in Alaska after nominee selection and heightened interest in Texas following primary results, have kept probabilities clustered. Iowa and the Ohio special election trail as next-tier battlegrounds due to similar structural factors. Late-cycle developments such as debates, national economic signals, or shifts in early voting could widen gaps among these outcomes before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$23,383Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings from groups like Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report identify Alaska, Maine, and Texas as the most competitive 2026 Senate contests, each rated toss-up or lean following candidate announcements and primaries. These races feature strong nominees in states with narrow partisan leans, where candidate quality, fundraising edges, and turnout patterns among key voting blocs can determine narrow margins. Recent updates, including improved Democratic positioning in Alaska after nominee selection and heightened interest in Texas following primary results, have kept probabilities clustered. Iowa and the Ohio special election trail as next-tier battlegrounds due to similar structural factors. Late-cycle developments such as debates, national economic signals, or shifts in early voting could widen gaps among these outcomes before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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