Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive with margins near or inside 5 points, driven by a national environment favoring Democrats. Recent polling aggregates show Democratic gains in Texas (Talarico leading Paxton), Ohio (Brown ahead of Husted), Michigan (open-seat matchup between El-Sayed and Rogers), Maine (Collins versus Jackson), Alaska (Sullivan versus Peltola), and Iowa, reflecting an 8-point generic ballot edge and voter concerns over economic conditions. Open seats and retirements have expanded the battlefield, while candidate recruitment and primary outcomes have produced viable challengers in Republican-leaning states. With roughly seven weeks until November 3 and early voting underway in multiple states, these races hinge on turnout dynamics in battlegrounds and any late shifts in the national mood.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich Senate races will be within 5%?
Which Senate races will be within 5%?
$64,033 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
83%
Alaska
72%
Kansas
67%
Michigan
65%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Nebraska
47%
Maine
41%
New Hampshire
38%
South Carolina
41%
North Carolina
27%
Florida (Special)
25%
Georgia
20%
Minnesota
17%
New Mexico
13%
Montana
9%
Virginia
5%
Colorado
4%
$64,033 KL.
Texas
$7,132 KL.
83%
Alaska
$2,789 KL.
72%
Kansas
$556 KL.
67%
Michigan
$2,743 KL.
65%
Iowa
$5,657 KL.
62%
Ohio (Special)
$3,967 KL.
56%
Nebraska
$3,719 KL.
47%
Maine
$1,119 KL.
41%
New Hampshire
$2,402 KL.
38%
South Carolina
$109 KL.
41%
North Carolina
$5,817 KL.
27%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 KL.
25%
Georgia
$2,057 KL.
20%
Minnesota
$9,915 KL.
17%
New Mexico
$6,665 KL.
13%
Montana
$2,990 KL.
9%
Virginia
$1,344 KL.
5%
Colorado
$2,599 KL.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive with margins near or inside 5 points, driven by a national environment favoring Democrats. Recent polling aggregates show Democratic gains in Texas (Talarico leading Paxton), Ohio (Brown ahead of Husted), Michigan (open-seat matchup between El-Sayed and Rogers), Maine (Collins versus Jackson), Alaska (Sullivan versus Peltola), and Iowa, reflecting an 8-point generic ballot edge and voter concerns over economic conditions. Open seats and retirements have expanded the battlefield, while candidate recruitment and primary outcomes have produced viable challengers in Republican-leaning states. With roughly seven weeks until November 3 and early voting underway in multiple states, these races hinge on turnout dynamics in battlegrounds and any late shifts in the national mood.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$64,033Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive with margins near or inside 5 points, driven by a national environment favoring Democrats. Recent polling aggregates show Democratic gains in Texas (Talarico leading Paxton), Ohio (Brown ahead of Husted), Michigan (open-seat matchup between El-Sayed and Rogers), Maine (Collins versus Jackson), Alaska (Sullivan versus Peltola), and Iowa, reflecting an 8-point generic ballot edge and voter concerns over economic conditions. Open seats and retirements have expanded the battlefield, while candidate recruitment and primary outcomes have produced viable challengers in Republican-leaning states. With roughly seven weeks until November 3 and early voting underway in multiple states, these races hinge on turnout dynamics in battlegrounds and any late shifts in the national mood.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$64,033Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive with margins near or inside 5 points, driven by a national environment favoring Democrats. Recent polling aggregates show Democratic gains in Texas (Talarico leading Paxton), Ohio (Brown ahead of Husted), Michigan (open-seat matchup between El-Sayed and Rogers), Maine (Collins versus Jackson), Alaska (Sullivan versus Peltola), and Iowa, reflecting an 8-point generic ballot edge and voter concerns over economic conditions. Open seats and retirements have expanded the battlefield, while candidate recruitment and primary outcomes have produced viable challengers in Republican-leaning states. With roughly seven weeks until November 3 and early voting underway in multiple states, these races hinge on turnout dynamics in battlegrounds and any late shifts in the national mood.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp