Recent polling aggregates and forecasts show multiple 2026 Senate contests tightening due to a national environment favoring Democrats, with generic ballot leads of 7-8 points and President Trump's approval ratings near 40 percent amid economic pressures. Key battlegrounds include Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio (special election), Maine, Alaska, and Iowa, where margins hover near or below 5 points in recent surveys, alongside open or competitive races in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Candidate recruitment, incumbency advantages, and state-specific turnout patterns in these battlegrounds drive the potential for close outcomes, with Democrats needing a net gain of about four seats for majority control. Election Day on November 3 leaves limited time for further shifts from campaign events or late polling movements.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich Senate races will be within 5%?
Which Senate races will be within 5%?
$65,519 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
81%
Alaska
70%
Iowa
69%
Kansas
70%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Michigan
55%
Maine
43%
Nebraska
43%
New Hampshire
38%
North Carolina
28%
Florida (Special)
25%
Minnesota
23%
Georgia
20%
New Mexico
13%
Montana
11%
Virginia
5%
Colorado
4%
South Carolina
59%
$65,519 KL.
Texas
$7,280 KL.
81%
Alaska
$2,853 KL.
70%
Iowa
$5,840 KL.
69%
Kansas
$571 KL.
70%
Ohio (Special)
$3,967 KL.
56%
Michigan
$3,054 KL.
55%
Maine
$1,119 KL.
43%
Nebraska
$3,809 KL.
43%
New Hampshire
$2,422 KL.
38%
North Carolina
$5,817 KL.
28%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 KL.
25%
Minnesota
$10,369 KL.
23%
Georgia
$2,057 KL.
20%
New Mexico
$6,665 KL.
13%
Montana
$3,190 KL.
11%
Virginia
$1,344 KL.
5%
Colorado
$2,599 KL.
4%
South Carolina
$109 KL.
59%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling aggregates and forecasts show multiple 2026 Senate contests tightening due to a national environment favoring Democrats, with generic ballot leads of 7-8 points and President Trump's approval ratings near 40 percent amid economic pressures. Key battlegrounds include Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio (special election), Maine, Alaska, and Iowa, where margins hover near or below 5 points in recent surveys, alongside open or competitive races in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Candidate recruitment, incumbency advantages, and state-specific turnout patterns in these battlegrounds drive the potential for close outcomes, with Democrats needing a net gain of about four seats for majority control. Election Day on November 3 leaves limited time for further shifts from campaign events or late polling movements.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$65,519Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling aggregates and forecasts show multiple 2026 Senate contests tightening due to a national environment favoring Democrats, with generic ballot leads of 7-8 points and President Trump's approval ratings near 40 percent amid economic pressures. Key battlegrounds include Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio (special election), Maine, Alaska, and Iowa, where margins hover near or below 5 points in recent surveys, alongside open or competitive races in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Candidate recruitment, incumbency advantages, and state-specific turnout patterns in these battlegrounds drive the potential for close outcomes, with Democrats needing a net gain of about four seats for majority control. Election Day on November 3 leaves limited time for further shifts from campaign events or late polling movements.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$65,519Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent polling aggregates and forecasts show multiple 2026 Senate contests tightening due to a national environment favoring Democrats, with generic ballot leads of 7-8 points and President Trump's approval ratings near 40 percent amid economic pressures. Key battlegrounds include Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio (special election), Maine, Alaska, and Iowa, where margins hover near or below 5 points in recent surveys, alongside open or competitive races in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Candidate recruitment, incumbency advantages, and state-specific turnout patterns in these battlegrounds drive the potential for close outcomes, with Democrats needing a net gain of about four seats for majority control. Election Day on November 3 leaves limited time for further shifts from campaign events or late polling movements.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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