DeepSeek's official announcement today of the V4 preview release—featuring open-source Mixture-of-Experts models DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total/49B active parameters) and V4-Flash—has driven trader consensus to 99.4% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," aligning perfectly with the current date. After weeks of leaks, interface tests, and reports signaling a late-April launch optimized for Huawei chips, the models are now live on DeepSeek's platform, API (OpenAI-compatible), and Hugging Face, boasting 1M-token context and top benchmarks in coding, math, and agentic tasks rivaling closed-source leaders like GPT-5.4. While a preview designation introduces minimal resolution risk, full evaluations or disputes over "release" criteria could theoretically challenge the outcome, though traders see negligible barriers given confirmed availability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDeepSeek V4 released on...?
DeepSeek V4 released on...?
On or prior to April 24 99.5%
April 25 10%
April 26 1%
April 27 1%
MỚI
$31,706 KL.
MỚI
$31,706 KL.
May 15, 2026
On or prior to April 24
100%
April 25
10%
April 26
1%
April 27
1%
April 28
<1%
April 29
<1%
April 30
<1%
May 1
<1%
May 2
<1%
May 3
<1%
May 4
<1%
May 5
<1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
<1%
May 10
<1%
May 11
<1%
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
<1%
May 15
<1%
Not released by May 15
<1%
On or prior to April 24 99.5%
April 25 10%
April 26 1%
April 27 1%
MỚI
$31,706 KL.
MỚI
$31,706 KL.
May 15, 2026
On or prior to April 24
$15,716 KL.
100%
April 25
$193 KL.
10%
April 26
$150 KL.
1%
April 27
$192 KL.
1%
April 28
$619 KL.
<1%
April 29
$535 KL.
<1%
April 30
$624 KL.
<1%
May 1
$807 KL.
<1%
May 2
$633 KL.
<1%
May 3
$654 KL.
<1%
May 4
$653 KL.
<1%
May 5
$672 KL.
<1%
May 6
$1,131 KL.
<1%
May 7
$708 KL.
<1%
May 8
$650 KL.
<1%
May 9
$435 KL.
<1%
May 10
$679 KL.
<1%
May 11
$535 KL.
<1%
May 12
$451 KL.
<1%
May 13
$450 KL.
<1%
May 14
$450 KL.
<1%
May 15
$401 KL.
<1%
Not released by May 15
$4,367 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official announcement today of the V4 preview release—featuring open-source Mixture-of-Experts models DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total/49B active parameters) and V4-Flash—has driven trader consensus to 99.4% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," aligning perfectly with the current date. After weeks of leaks, interface tests, and reports signaling a late-April launch optimized for Huawei chips, the models are now live on DeepSeek's platform, API (OpenAI-compatible), and Hugging Face, boasting 1M-token context and top benchmarks in coding, math, and agentic tasks rivaling closed-source leaders like GPT-5.4. While a preview designation introduces minimal resolution risk, full evaluations or disputes over "release" criteria could theoretically challenge the outcome, though traders see negligible barriers given confirmed availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$31,706Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official announcement today of the V4 preview release—featuring open-source Mixture-of-Experts models DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total/49B active parameters) and V4-Flash—has driven trader consensus to 99.4% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," aligning perfectly with the current date. After weeks of leaks, interface tests, and reports signaling a late-April launch optimized for Huawei chips, the models are now live on DeepSeek's platform, API (OpenAI-compatible), and Hugging Face, boasting 1M-token context and top benchmarks in coding, math, and agentic tasks rivaling closed-source leaders like GPT-5.4. While a preview designation introduces minimal resolution risk, full evaluations or disputes over "release" criteria could theoretically challenge the outcome, though traders see negligible barriers given confirmed availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$31,706Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...DeepSeek's official announcement today of the V4 preview release—featuring open-source Mixture-of-Experts models DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total/49B active parameters) and V4-Flash—has driven trader consensus to 99.4% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," aligning perfectly with the current date. After weeks of leaks, interface tests, and reports signaling a late-April launch optimized for Huawei chips, the models are now live on DeepSeek's platform, API (OpenAI-compatible), and Hugging Face, boasting 1M-token context and top benchmarks in coding, math, and agentic tasks rivaling closed-source leaders like GPT-5.4. While a preview designation introduces minimal resolution risk, full evaluations or disputes over "release" criteria could theoretically challenge the outcome, though traders see negligible barriers given confirmed availability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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