Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and European guidance points to a clear, stable high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring strong daytime solar heating on September 11. This setup supports a maximum near 30–31 °C in Madrid, modestly above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5 °C for the date. Recent observations show a gradual seasonal cooling after early-September warmth, yet persistent subsidence and dry conditions have kept temperatures elevated without triggering convective cooling. Market-implied odds heavily favor 30–31 °C because these align with the tight cluster of deterministic and ensemble guidance; only a modest northward shift in steering flow or unexpected boundary-layer mixing would push readings to 32 °C or higher before the market resolves.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
31°C 60%
30°C 23%
32°C 14%
29°C 2%
MỚI
$11,659 KL.
MỚI
$11,659 KL.
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
23%
31°C
60%
32°C
14%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 60%
30°C 23%
32°C 14%
29°C 2%
MỚI
$11,659 KL.
MỚI
$11,659 KL.
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
$695 KL.
<1%
26°C
$472 KL.
<1%
27°C
$445 KL.
1%
28°C
$313 KL.
<1%
29°C
$487 KL.
2%
30°C
$4,295 KL.
23%
31°C
$2,667 KL.
60%
32°C
$1,062 KL.
14%
33°C
$480 KL.
<1%
34°C
$242 KL.
<1%
35°C or higher
$501 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and European guidance points to a clear, stable high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring strong daytime solar heating on September 11. This setup supports a maximum near 30–31 °C in Madrid, modestly above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5 °C for the date. Recent observations show a gradual seasonal cooling after early-September warmth, yet persistent subsidence and dry conditions have kept temperatures elevated without triggering convective cooling. Market-implied odds heavily favor 30–31 °C because these align with the tight cluster of deterministic and ensemble guidance; only a modest northward shift in steering flow or unexpected boundary-layer mixing would push readings to 32 °C or higher before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$11,659Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and European guidance points to a clear, stable high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring strong daytime solar heating on September 11. This setup supports a maximum near 30–31 °C in Madrid, modestly above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5 °C for the date. Recent observations show a gradual seasonal cooling after early-September warmth, yet persistent subsidence and dry conditions have kept temperatures elevated without triggering convective cooling. Market-implied odds heavily favor 30–31 °C because these align with the tight cluster of deterministic and ensemble guidance; only a modest northward shift in steering flow or unexpected boundary-layer mixing would push readings to 32 °C or higher before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$11,659Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and European guidance points to a clear, stable high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring strong daytime solar heating on September 11. This setup supports a maximum near 30–31 °C in Madrid, modestly above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5 °C for the date. Recent observations show a gradual seasonal cooling after early-September warmth, yet persistent subsidence and dry conditions have kept temperatures elevated without triggering convective cooling. Market-implied odds heavily favor 30–31 °C because these align with the tight cluster of deterministic and ensemble guidance; only a modest northward shift in steering flow or unexpected boundary-layer mixing would push readings to 32 °C or higher before the market resolves.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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