Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Milan on May 12, driven by high-resolution forecast consensus from ARPA Lombardia, ECMWF, and Aeronautica Militare models showing daytime peaks at 20-20.5°C amid post-frontal cooling after May 11's rain and hail. Northerly winds and partial cloud cover limit solar insolation, aligning with current observations at Milano Linate station nearing this cap by mid-afternoon. This positioning below May climatological averages (~22°C) reflects stable high-pressure ridging suppressing heat advection. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing boundary-layer mixing for a 21°C outlier or station microclimate variations, though model ensembles exhibit minimal spread; end-of-day official measurements will confirm resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Milan on May 12?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 12?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$117,923 KL.
$117,923 KL.
May 12, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$117,923 KL.
$117,923 KL.
May 12, 2026
15°C or below
$10,163 KL.
No
16°C
$17,313 KL.
No
17°C
$12,467 KL.
No
18°C
$10,261 KL.
No
19°C
$16,798 KL.
No
20°C
$15,933 KL.
Yes
21°C
$7,717 KL.
No
22°C
$8,444 KL.
No
23°C
$7,713 KL.
No
24°C
$4,775 KL.
No
25°C or higher
$6,340 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Milan on May 12, driven by high-resolution forecast consensus from ARPA Lombardia, ECMWF, and Aeronautica Militare models showing daytime peaks at 20-20.5°C amid post-frontal cooling after May 11's rain and hail. Northerly winds and partial cloud cover limit solar insolation, aligning with current observations at Milano Linate station nearing this cap by mid-afternoon. This positioning below May climatological averages (~22°C) reflects stable high-pressure ridging suppressing heat advection. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing boundary-layer mixing for a 21°C outlier or station microclimate variations, though model ensembles exhibit minimal spread; end-of-day official measurements will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Khối lượng
$117,923Ngày kết thúc
May 12, 2026Thị trường mở
May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Milan on May 12, driven by high-resolution forecast consensus from ARPA Lombardia, ECMWF, and Aeronautica Militare models showing daytime peaks at 20-20.5°C amid post-frontal cooling after May 11's rain and hail. Northerly winds and partial cloud cover limit solar insolation, aligning with current observations at Milano Linate station nearing this cap by mid-afternoon. This positioning below May climatological averages (~22°C) reflects stable high-pressure ridging suppressing heat advection. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing boundary-layer mixing for a 21°C outlier or station microclimate variations, though model ensembles exhibit minimal spread; end-of-day official measurements will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$117,923Ngày kết thúc
May 12, 2026Thị trường mở
May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Milan on May 12, driven by high-resolution forecast consensus from ARPA Lombardia, ECMWF, and Aeronautica Militare models showing daytime peaks at 20-20.5°C amid post-frontal cooling after May 11's rain and hail. Northerly winds and partial cloud cover limit solar insolation, aligning with current observations at Milano Linate station nearing this cap by mid-afternoon. This positioning below May climatological averages (~22°C) reflects stable high-pressure ridging suppressing heat advection. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing boundary-layer mixing for a 21°C outlier or station microclimate variations, though model ensembles exhibit minimal spread; end-of-day official measurements will confirm resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp