Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 13?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$71,850 KL.
$71,850 KL.
May 13, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$71,850 KL.
$71,850 KL.
May 13, 2026
16°C or below
$1,176 KL.
No
17°C
$1,548 KL.
No
18°C
$1,166 KL.
No
19°C
$1,016 KL.
No
20°C
$1,325 KL.
No
21°C
$2,275 KL.
No
22°C
$7,195 KL.
No
23°C
$7,947 KL.
No
24°C
$8,200 KL.
No
25°C
$23,913 KL.
No
26°C or higher
$16,089 KL.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Khối lượng
$71,850Ngày kết thúc
May 13, 2026Thị trường mở
May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$71,850Ngày kết thúc
May 13, 2026Thị trường mở
May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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