Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$167,649 KL.
$167,649 KL.
May 4, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
Yes
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$167,649 KL.
$167,649 KL.
May 4, 2026
18°C or below
$986 KL.
No
19°C
$1,503 KL.
No
20°C
$1,175 KL.
No
21°C
$14,562 KL.
No
22°C
$20,456 KL.
No
23°C
$14,130 KL.
No
24°C
$13,136 KL.
No
25°C
$19,181 KL.
No
26°C
$22,838 KL.
No
27°C
$31,251 KL.
No
28°C or higher
$28,431 KL.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$167,649Ngày kết thúc
May 4, 2026Thị trường mở
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$167,649Ngày kết thúc
May 4, 2026Thị trường mở
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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