Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-total certainty (100% implied probability) for a 22°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 5, 2026, anchored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) 17:00 forecast and hourly observations confirming a midday peak of 22°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning stems from a stable Pacific high-pressure ridge delivering mild early-May conditions—climatologically averaging 22–23°C highs—but with broken cloud cover limiting solar insolation and preventing further warming, as temperatures cool to 21°C by late afternoon. Realistic challenges include sudden sky clearing for late-day heating to 22.5°C (rounding to 23°C per whole-degree resolution via Wunderground data), though current trends and model consensus make this unlikely ahead of final JMA observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
22°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$120,151 KL.
$120,151 KL.
May 5, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$120,151 KL.
$120,151 KL.
May 5, 2026
13°C or below
$688 KL.
No
14°C
$1,234 KL.
No
15°C
$667 KL.
No
16°C
$461 KL.
No
17°C
$2,700 KL.
No
18°C
$3,941 KL.
No
19°C
$12,138 KL.
No
20°C
$7,795 KL.
No
21°C
$30,282 KL.
No
22°C
$24,370 KL.
Yes
23°C or higher
$35,875 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-total certainty (100% implied probability) for a 22°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 5, 2026, anchored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) 17:00 forecast and hourly observations confirming a midday peak of 22°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning stems from a stable Pacific high-pressure ridge delivering mild early-May conditions—climatologically averaging 22–23°C highs—but with broken cloud cover limiting solar insolation and preventing further warming, as temperatures cool to 21°C by late afternoon. Realistic challenges include sudden sky clearing for late-day heating to 22.5°C (rounding to 23°C per whole-degree resolution via Wunderground data), though current trends and model consensus make this unlikely ahead of final JMA observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$120,151Ngày kết thúc
May 5, 2026Thị trường mở
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-total certainty (100% implied probability) for a 22°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 5, 2026, anchored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) 17:00 forecast and hourly observations confirming a midday peak of 22°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning stems from a stable Pacific high-pressure ridge delivering mild early-May conditions—climatologically averaging 22–23°C highs—but with broken cloud cover limiting solar insolation and preventing further warming, as temperatures cool to 21°C by late afternoon. Realistic challenges include sudden sky clearing for late-day heating to 22.5°C (rounding to 23°C per whole-degree resolution via Wunderground data), though current trends and model consensus make this unlikely ahead of final JMA observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$120,151Ngày kết thúc
May 5, 2026Thị trường mở
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-total certainty (100% implied probability) for a 22°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 5, 2026, anchored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) 17:00 forecast and hourly observations confirming a midday peak of 22°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning stems from a stable Pacific high-pressure ridge delivering mild early-May conditions—climatologically averaging 22–23°C highs—but with broken cloud cover limiting solar insolation and preventing further warming, as temperatures cool to 21°C by late afternoon. Realistic challenges include sudden sky clearing for late-day heating to 22.5°C (rounding to 23°C per whole-degree resolution via Wunderground data), though current trends and model consensus make this unlikely ahead of final JMA observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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