The Green Party's strong performance in the May 2026 Camden local elections, where it reached 28.8% against Labour's 38.8%, combined with leader Zack Polanski's selection as candidate on 11 September, underpins trader expectations for a 30-40% vote share in the 8 October by-election. Local gains, including ten Green councillors in the constituency, signal momentum on issues such as housing affordability and environmental policy, narrowing the contest with Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali. Projections from models like PollCheck place the Greens around 28-38%, reflecting a two-way squeeze on other parties. Recent national shifts under Labour's new leadership and intensive doorstep campaigning by both sides could widen or narrow the final margin depending on turnout and late voter movement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật35-40% 35%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 24%
<20% 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
13%
20-25%
5%
25-30%
24%
30-35%
27%
35-40%
35%
40%+
5%
35-40% 35%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 24%
<20% 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$649 KL.
13%
20-25%
$395 KL.
5%
25-30%
$554 KL.
24%
30-35%
$438 KL.
27%
35-40%
$759 KL.
35%
40%+
$314 KL.
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Green Party's strong performance in the May 2026 Camden local elections, where it reached 28.8% against Labour's 38.8%, combined with leader Zack Polanski's selection as candidate on 11 September, underpins trader expectations for a 30-40% vote share in the 8 October by-election. Local gains, including ten Green councillors in the constituency, signal momentum on issues such as housing affordability and environmental policy, narrowing the contest with Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali. Projections from models like PollCheck place the Greens around 28-38%, reflecting a two-way squeeze on other parties. Recent national shifts under Labour's new leadership and intensive doorstep campaigning by both sides could widen or narrow the final margin depending on turnout and late voter movement.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,109Ngày kết thúc
Oct 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Green Party's strong performance in the May 2026 Camden local elections, where it reached 28.8% against Labour's 38.8%, combined with leader Zack Polanski's selection as candidate on 11 September, underpins trader expectations for a 30-40% vote share in the 8 October by-election. Local gains, including ten Green councillors in the constituency, signal momentum on issues such as housing affordability and environmental policy, narrowing the contest with Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali. Projections from models like PollCheck place the Greens around 28-38%, reflecting a two-way squeeze on other parties. Recent national shifts under Labour's new leadership and intensive doorstep campaigning by both sides could widen or narrow the final margin depending on turnout and late voter movement.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Khối lượng
$3,109Ngày kết thúc
Oct 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The Green Party's strong performance in the May 2026 Camden local elections, where it reached 28.8% against Labour's 38.8%, combined with leader Zack Polanski's selection as candidate on 11 September, underpins trader expectations for a 30-40% vote share in the 8 October by-election. Local gains, including ten Green councillors in the constituency, signal momentum on issues such as housing affordability and environmental policy, narrowing the contest with Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali. Projections from models like PollCheck place the Greens around 28-38%, reflecting a two-way squeeze on other parties. Recent national shifts under Labour's new leadership and intensive doorstep campaigning by both sides could widen or narrow the final margin depending on turnout and late voter movement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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