The Republican Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the IL-15 House election due to the district’s entrenched partisan lean and structural advantages. Mary Miller, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2020, secured her party’s nomination decisively in the March 17, 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 3 general election. The rural and suburban central Illinois seat carries a Cook Political Report Solid Republican rating and an R+20 Partisan Voting Index, reflecting consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Todd emerged from a crowded Democratic primary, but the district’s electorate and turnout patterns limit viable paths for a Democratic upset absent an unforeseen national swing, candidate-specific disruption, or sharp change in voter mobilization before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-15 House Election Winner
IL-15 House Election Winner
$34,293 KL.
$34,293 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$34,293 KL.
$34,293 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$17,306 KL.
94%
Democratic Party
$16,987 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the IL-15 House election due to the district’s entrenched partisan lean and structural advantages. Mary Miller, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2020, secured her party’s nomination decisively in the March 17, 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 3 general election. The rural and suburban central Illinois seat carries a Cook Political Report Solid Republican rating and an R+20 Partisan Voting Index, reflecting consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Todd emerged from a crowded Democratic primary, but the district’s electorate and turnout patterns limit viable paths for a Democratic upset absent an unforeseen national swing, candidate-specific disruption, or sharp change in voter mobilization before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$34,293Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the IL-15 House election due to the district’s entrenched partisan lean and structural advantages. Mary Miller, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2020, secured her party’s nomination decisively in the March 17, 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 3 general election. The rural and suburban central Illinois seat carries a Cook Political Report Solid Republican rating and an R+20 Partisan Voting Index, reflecting consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Todd emerged from a crowded Democratic primary, but the district’s electorate and turnout patterns limit viable paths for a Democratic upset absent an unforeseen national swing, candidate-specific disruption, or sharp change in voter mobilization before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$34,293Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the IL-15 House election due to the district’s entrenched partisan lean and structural advantages. Mary Miller, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2020, secured her party’s nomination decisively in the March 17, 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 3 general election. The rural and suburban central Illinois seat carries a Cook Political Report Solid Republican rating and an R+20 Partisan Voting Index, reflecting consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Todd emerged from a crowded Democratic primary, but the district’s electorate and turnout patterns limit viable paths for a Democratic upset absent an unforeseen national swing, candidate-specific disruption, or sharp change in voter mobilization before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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